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meritocratic
regular
democratic
hot
top
alive
13 posts
Calibration
6 posts
Underconfidence
118
Use Normal Predictions
Jan Christian Refsgaard
11mo
69
117
Calibrate your self-assessments
Scott Alexander
11y
121
69
Calibration Test with database of 150,000+ questions
Nanashi
7y
31
68
Raising the forecasting waterline (part 1)
Morendil
10y
106
40
Horrible LHC Inconsistency
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
34
38
Qualitatively Confused
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
82
33
Calibration for continuous quantities
Cyan
13y
13
29
A Motorcycle (and Calibration?) Accident
boggler
4y
11
22
Is there a.. more exact.. way of scoring a predictor's calibration?
mako yass
3y
6
17
What are good ML/AI related prediction / calibration questions for 2019?
james_t
3y
4
8
RFC on an open problem: how to determine probabilities in the face of social distortion
ialdabaoth
5y
3
1
Prediction and Calibration - Part 1
Jan Christian Refsgaard
1y
11
-4
Calibration Gaming
Jonathan Yan
2mo
4
142
Irrational Modesty
Tomás B.
1y
7
67
The Sin of Underconfidence
Eliezer Yudkowsky
13y
185
47
Simultaneous Overconfidence and Underconfidence
abramdemski
7y
6
32
The Importance of Self-Doubt
multifoliaterose
12y
746
21
A note about calibration of confidence
jbay
6y
35
14
How confident should we be?
10y
19