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44 posts
Epistemology
The Problem of the Criterion
58 posts
Calibration
Games (posts describing)
Humility
Modest Epistemology
Aumann's Agreement Theorem
Underconfidence
Research Taste
Scoring Rules
Aggregation
106
The Lens That Sees Its Flaws
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
41
98
How to Convince Me That 2 + 2 = 3
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
407
78
Reflective Bayesianism
abramdemski
1y
27
75
Some rationality tweets
Peter_de_Blanc
11y
81
74
The Tragedy of the Social Epistemology Commons
Roko
12y
91
74
The Principle of Predicted Improvement
Ronny Fernandez
3y
17
73
I only believe in the paranormal
Malmesbury
7mo
9
66
The secret of Wikipedia's success
Aaron Bergman
1y
10
63
Infinite Certainty
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
128
62
You only need faith in two things
Eliezer Yudkowsky
9y
86
59
Multiple Factor Explanations Should Not Appear One-Sided
Stefan_Schubert
8y
32
55
Argument Screens Off Authority
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
85
52
Novum Organum: Preface
Francis Bacon
3y
5
52
The Use of Many Independent Lines of Evidence: The Basel Problem
JonahS
9y
44
151
My research methodology
paulfchristiano
1y
36
142
Irrational Modesty
Tomás B.
1y
7
120
The Proper Use of Humility
Eliezer Yudkowsky
16y
54
118
Use Normal Predictions
Jan Christian Refsgaard
11mo
69
117
Calibrate your self-assessments
Scott Alexander
11y
121
81
A Proper Scoring Rule for Confidence Intervals
Scott Garrabrant
4y
47
69
Calibration Test with database of 150,000+ questions
Nanashi
7y
31
68
Raising the forecasting waterline (part 1)
Morendil
10y
106
67
The Sin of Underconfidence
Eliezer Yudkowsky
13y
185
66
Bayesian Judo
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
108
61
Against Modest Epistemology
Eliezer Yudkowsky
5y
49
60
How I Formed My Own Views About AI Safety
Neel Nanda
9mo
6
59
Say It Loud
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
20
56
Einstein's Superpowers
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
93