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127 posts
Forecasting
Long-range forecasting
Metaculus
Forecasting Newsletter
78 posts
Research summary
Newsletters
Research
Prediction markets
Weekly Summaries (project)
Future Matters
Expertise
Arb
Effective Altruism Behavioral Science Newsletter
Manifold Markets
Asterisk
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
74
Creating a database for base rates
nikos
8d
7
10
The biggest red flag about SBF
trevor1
26d
11
10
Mogensen & MacAskill, 'The paralysis argument'
Pablo
1y
2
34
My current best guess on how to aggregate forecasts
Jaime Sevilla
1y
11
49
Tracking the money flows in forecasting
NunoSempere
1mo
4
37
Epistemics-Improving Activities for Groups and Friends
ChanaMessinger
2mo
7
45
[Cause Exploration Prizes] Training experts to be forecasters
Sam Abbott
3mo
9
50
[Linkpost] Dan Luu: Futurist prediction methods and accuracy
Linch
3mo
7
33
Updating on the passage of time and conditional prediction curves
Jonas Moss
4mo
6
13
Is there a good web app for doing the "equivalent bet test" from "How To Measure Anything"?
nonzerosum
1mo
1
37
Forecasting Newsletter: June 2022
NunoSempere
5mo
4
51
Participate in the Hybrid Forecasting-Persuasion Tournament (on X-risk topics)
Jhrosenberg
7mo
4
140
Samotsvety Nuclear Risk Forecasts — March 2022
NunoSempere
9mo
55
96
Data on forecasting accuracy across different time horizons and levels of forecaster experience
Charles Dillon
1y
6
62
Radical tactics can increase support for more moderate groups
James Ozden
4d
11
102
Does putting kids in school now put money in their pockets later? Revisiting a natural experiment in Indonesia
David Roodman
25d
24
243
Announcing the first issue of Asterisk
Clara Collier
29d
47
14
Paper summary: The paralysis argument (William MacAskill and Andreas Mogensen)
Global Priorities Institute
4d
3
24
Prediction market does not imply causation
Lizka
2mo
19
45
Summaries are underrated
Nathan Young
3mo
23
134
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (21 Aug - 27 Aug 22’)
Zoe Williams
3mo
14
98
Finding before funding: Why EA should probably invest more in research
Falk Lieder
4mo
11
43
Paper summary: The Epistemic Challenge to Longtermism (Christian Tarsney)
Global Priorities Institute
2mo
5
65
Prediction Markets in The Corporate Setting
NunoSempere
11mo
15
24
Future Matters #5: supervolcanoes, AI takeover, and What We Owe the Future
Pablo
3mo
5
10
Forum ranking system prototype: Cause Prioritsation Contest posts ranked by prediction markets
Nathan Young
3mo
5
310
Introducing Asterisk
Clara Collier
6mo
33
29
Questions about and Objections to 'Sharing the World with Digital Minds' (2020)
Dr. David Mathers
2mo
3