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127 posts
Forecasting
Long-range forecasting
Metaculus
Forecasting Newsletter
78 posts
Research summary
Newsletters
Research
Prediction markets
Weekly Summaries (project)
Future Matters
Expertise
Arb
Effective Altruism Behavioral Science Newsletter
Manifold Markets
Asterisk
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
140
Samotsvety Nuclear Risk Forecasts — March 2022
NunoSempere
9mo
55
131
How accurate are Open Phil's predictions?
Javier Prieto
6mo
18
125
Introducing Metaforecast: A Forecast Aggregator and Search Tool
NunoSempere
1y
17
123
Rational predictions often update predictably*
Gregory Lewis
7mo
14
96
Data on forecasting accuracy across different time horizons and levels of forecaster experience
Charles Dillon
1y
6
90
When pooling forecasts, use the geometric mean of odds
Jaime Sevilla
1y
59
87
Formalising the "Washing Out Hypothesis"
dwebb
1y
24
85
Impactful Forecasting Prize for forecast writeups on curated Metaculus questions
elifland
10mo
13
80
Use resilience, instead of imprecision, to communicate uncertainty
Gregory Lewis
2y
34
74
Creating a database for base rates
nikos
8d
7
70
Evidence on good forecasting practices from the Good Judgment Project: an accompanying blog post
kokotajlod
3y
14
68
Pablo Stafforini’s Forecasting System
jungofthewon
2y
9
64
Some learnings I had from forecasting in 2020
Linch
2y
8
55
Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize
Ozzie Gooen
2y
7
310
Introducing Asterisk
Clara Collier
6mo
33
243
Announcing the first issue of Asterisk
Clara Collier
29d
47
173
Comparing top forecasters and domain experts
Gavin
9mo
39
134
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (21 Aug - 27 Aug 22’)
Zoe Williams
3mo
14
102
Does putting kids in school now put money in their pockets later? Revisiting a natural experiment in Indonesia
David Roodman
25d
24
98
Finding before funding: Why EA should probably invest more in research
Falk Lieder
4mo
11
82
Features that make a report especially helpful to me
lukeprog
8mo
1
72
Future Matters #3: digital sentience, AGI ruin, and forecasting track records
Pablo
5mo
2
65
Prediction Markets in The Corporate Setting
NunoSempere
11mo
15
62
Radical tactics can increase support for more moderate groups
James Ozden
4d
11
62
GPT-2 as step toward general intelligence (Alexander, 2019)
Will Aldred
5mo
0
60
Apollo Academic Surveys
Chris Said
7mo
2
55
Beware Isolated Demands for Rigor (Alexander, 2014)
Will Aldred
5mo
0
54
The case for strong longtermism - June 2021 update
Jack Malde
1y
13