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127 posts
Forecasting
Long-range forecasting
Metaculus
Forecasting Newsletter
78 posts
Research summary
Newsletters
Research
Prediction markets
Weekly Summaries (project)
Future Matters
Expertise
Arb
Effective Altruism Behavioral Science Newsletter
Manifold Markets
Asterisk
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
181
How accurate are Open Phil's predictions?
Javier Prieto
6mo
18
170
Samotsvety Nuclear Risk Forecasts — March 2022
NunoSempere
9mo
55
151
Rational predictions often update predictably*
Gregory Lewis
7mo
14
139
Introducing Metaforecast: A Forecast Aggregator and Search Tool
NunoSempere
1y
17
130
Data on forecasting accuracy across different time horizons and levels of forecaster experience
Charles Dillon
1y
6
112
Use resilience, instead of imprecision, to communicate uncertainty
Gregory Lewis
2y
34
110
Some learnings I had from forecasting in 2020
Linch
2y
8
104
When pooling forecasts, use the geometric mean of odds
Jaime Sevilla
1y
59
103
Formalising the "Washing Out Hypothesis"
dwebb
1y
24
99
Tracking the money flows in forecasting
NunoSempere
1mo
4
97
Impactful Forecasting Prize for forecast writeups on curated Metaculus questions
elifland
10mo
13
90
An examination of Metaculus' resolved AI predictions and their implications for AI timelines
Charles Dillon
1y
0
88
Evidence on good forecasting practices from the Good Judgment Project: an accompanying blog post
kokotajlod
3y
14
78
Pablo Stafforini’s Forecasting System
jungofthewon
2y
9
307
Announcing the first issue of Asterisk
Clara Collier
29d
47
262
Introducing Asterisk
Clara Collier
6mo
33
187
Comparing top forecasters and domain experts
Gavin
9mo
39
154
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (21 Aug - 27 Aug 22’)
Zoe Williams
3mo
14
136
Does putting kids in school now put money in their pockets later? Revisiting a natural experiment in Indonesia
David Roodman
25d
24
126
Features that make a report especially helpful to me
lukeprog
8mo
1
106
Finding before funding: Why EA should probably invest more in research
Falk Lieder
4mo
11
97
Prediction Markets in The Corporate Setting
NunoSempere
11mo
15
90
Radical tactics can increase support for more moderate groups
James Ozden
4d
11
88
The Track Record of Futurists Seems ... Fine
Holden Karnofsky
5mo
2
81
Future Matters #4: AI timelines, AGI risk, and existential risk from climate change
Pablo
4mo
0
74
The case for strong longtermism - June 2021 update
Jack Malde
1y
13
73
Distillation and research debt
Lizka
9mo
7
70
Apollo Academic Surveys
Chris Said
7mo
2