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127 posts
Forecasting
Long-range forecasting
Metaculus
Forecasting Newsletter
78 posts
Research summary
Newsletters
Research
Prediction markets
Weekly Summaries (project)
Future Matters
Expertise
Arb
Effective Altruism Behavioral Science Newsletter
Manifold Markets
Asterisk
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
66
Creating a database for base rates
nikos
8d
7
99
Tracking the money flows in forecasting
NunoSempere
1mo
4
36
The biggest red flag about SBF
trevor1
26d
11
181
How accurate are Open Phil's predictions?
Javier Prieto
6mo
18
6
Contrarians as a reference class
Will Aldred
10d
0
76
[Linkpost] Dan Luu: Futurist prediction methods and accuracy
Linch
3mo
7
53
Epistemics-Improving Activities for Groups and Friends
ChanaMessinger
2mo
7
21
Forecasting Newsletter for October 2022
NunoSempere
1mo
0
151
Rational predictions often update predictably*
Gregory Lewis
7mo
14
170
Samotsvety Nuclear Risk Forecasts — March 2022
NunoSempere
9mo
55
33
Forecasting Newsletter: September 2022.
NunoSempere
2mo
0
53
[Cause Exploration Prizes] Training experts to be forecasters
Sam Abbott
3mo
9
55
Superforecasting Long-Term Risks and Climate Change
LuisEUrtubey
4mo
0
15
Is there a good web app for doing the "equivalent bet test" from "How To Measure Anything"?
nonzerosum
1mo
1
90
Radical tactics can increase support for more moderate groups
James Ozden
4d
11
307
Announcing the first issue of Asterisk
Clara Collier
29d
47
22
Paper summary: The paralysis argument (William MacAskill and Andreas Mogensen)
Global Priorities Institute
4d
3
136
Does putting kids in school now put money in their pockets later? Revisiting a natural experiment in Indonesia
David Roodman
25d
24
15
The EA Behavioral Science Newsletter #7 (December 2022)
PeterSlattery
5d
0
40
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (28th Nov - 4th Dec 22')
Zoe Williams
14d
0
24
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (14th Nov - 27th Nov 22')
Zoe Williams
21d
0
154
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (21 Aug - 27 Aug 22’)
Zoe Williams
3mo
14
262
Introducing Asterisk
Clara Collier
6mo
33
43
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (17 - 23 Oct 22')
Zoe Williams
1mo
2
106
Finding before funding: Why EA should probably invest more in research
Falk Lieder
4mo
11
81
Future Matters #4: AI timelines, AGI risk, and existential risk from climate change
Pablo
4mo
0
41
Summary of 'Sharing the World With Digital Minds' by Carl Shulman and Nick Bostrom
Dr. David Mathers
2mo
1
187
Comparing top forecasters and domain experts
Gavin
9mo
39