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199 posts
Rationality
Epistemic deference
Cluelessness
Epistemology
Statistics
Cognitive bias
Fermi estimate
Risk aversion
Model uncertainty
Indirect long-term effects
Disentanglement research
Philanthropic diversification
205 posts
Forecasting
Research summary
Metaculus
Newsletters
Long-range forecasting
Forecasting Newsletter
Research
Prediction markets
Weekly Summaries (project)
Arb
Future Matters
Manifold Markets
170
Clarifications on diminishing returns and risk aversion in giving
Robert_Wiblin
25d
25
146
EA should blurt
RobBensinger
28d
26
79
Beware frictions from altruistic value differences
Magnus Vinding
19d
6
142
Invisible impact loss (and why we can be too error-averse)
Lizka
2mo
14
45
Tyranny of the Epistemic Majority
Scott Garrabrant
28d
2
128
When reporting AI timelines, be clear who you're (not) deferring to
Sam Clarke
2mo
20
15
How Many Lives Does X-Risk Work Save From Nonexistence On Average?
Jordan Arel
12d
10
11
The Last Temptation of Christ (Alexander, 2012)
Will Aldred
11d
1
29
The Geometric Expectation
Scott Garrabrant
27d
0
17
Simple BOTEC on X-Risk Work for Neartermists
Phosphorous
18d
10
25
Geometric Exploration, Arithmetic Exploitation
Scott Garrabrant
26d
0
106
EAs underestimate uncertainty in cause prioritisation
freedomandutility
3mo
20
26
Critically Engaging with Long Articles
Elliot Temple
1mo
2
158
Global health is important for the epistemic foundations of EA, even for longtermists
Owen Cotton-Barratt
6mo
16
90
Radical tactics can increase support for more moderate groups
James Ozden
4d
11
307
Announcing the first issue of Asterisk
Clara Collier
29d
47
66
Creating a database for base rates
nikos
8d
7
22
Paper summary: The paralysis argument (William MacAskill and Andreas Mogensen)
Global Priorities Institute
4d
3
136
Does putting kids in school now put money in their pockets later? Revisiting a natural experiment in Indonesia
David Roodman
25d
24
15
The EA Behavioral Science Newsletter #7 (December 2022)
PeterSlattery
5d
0
40
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (28th Nov - 4th Dec 22')
Zoe Williams
14d
0
99
Tracking the money flows in forecasting
NunoSempere
1mo
4
36
The biggest red flag about SBF
trevor1
26d
11
24
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (14th Nov - 27th Nov 22')
Zoe Williams
21d
0
154
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (21 Aug - 27 Aug 22’)
Zoe Williams
3mo
14
262
Introducing Asterisk
Clara Collier
6mo
33
181
How accurate are Open Phil's predictions?
Javier Prieto
6mo
18
6
Contrarians as a reference class
Will Aldred
10d
0