Go Back
Choose this branch
Choose this branch
meritocratic
regular
democratic
hot
top
alive
57 posts
Cluelessness
Fermi estimate
Risk aversion
Model uncertainty
Disentanglement research
Indirect long-term effects
Philanthropic diversification
Crucial consideration
Moral offsetting
Meat-eater problem
Broad vs. narrow interventions
Hilary Greaves
142 posts
Rationality
Epistemic deference
Epistemology
Statistics
Cognitive bias
Optimizer's curse
Bayesian epistemology
Scope neglect
Independent impression
Giving and happiness
Thinking at the margin
Conflict theory vs. mistake theory
170
Clarifications on diminishing returns and risk aversion in giving
Robert_Wiblin
25d
25
15
How Many Lives Does X-Risk Work Save From Nonexistence On Average?
Jordan Arel
12d
10
17
Simple BOTEC on X-Risk Work for Neartermists
Phosphorous
18d
10
106
EAs underestimate uncertainty in cause prioritisation
freedomandutility
3mo
20
47
Guesstimate Algorithm for Medical Research
Elizabeth
2mo
2
91
Meat Externalities
Richard Y Chappell
5mo
12
44
Introduction to Fermi estimates
NunoSempere
3mo
5
42
Why does GiveWell not provide lower and upper estimates for the cost-effectiveness of its top charities?
Vasco Grilo
4mo
8
54
Concerns with Difference-Making Risk Aversion
Charlotte
6mo
1
125
A practical guide to long-term planning – and suggestions for longtermism
weeatquince
1y
12
73
What's your prior probability that "good things are good" (for the long-term future)?
Linch
10mo
12
12
How much donations are needed to neutralise the annual x-risk footprint of the mean human?
Vasco Grilo
2mo
2
15
We’re really bad at guessing the future
Benj Azose
4mo
2
115
Evidence, cluelessness, and the long term - Hilary Greaves
james
2y
85
146
EA should blurt
RobBensinger
28d
26
79
Beware frictions from altruistic value differences
Magnus Vinding
19d
6
142
Invisible impact loss (and why we can be too error-averse)
Lizka
2mo
14
45
Tyranny of the Epistemic Majority
Scott Garrabrant
28d
2
128
When reporting AI timelines, be clear who you're (not) deferring to
Sam Clarke
2mo
20
11
The Last Temptation of Christ (Alexander, 2012)
Will Aldred
11d
1
29
The Geometric Expectation
Scott Garrabrant
27d
0
25
Geometric Exploration, Arithmetic Exploitation
Scott Garrabrant
26d
0
26
Critically Engaging with Long Articles
Elliot Temple
1mo
2
158
Global health is important for the epistemic foundations of EA, even for longtermists
Owen Cotton-Barratt
6mo
16
46
Scout Mindset Poster
Anthony Fleming
2mo
8
134
Deference Culture in EA
Joey
6mo
23
41
A peek at pairwise preference estimation in economics, marketing, and statistics
Jonas Moss
2mo
5
42
Estimating value from pairwise comparisons
Jonas Moss
2mo
3