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alive
57 posts
Cluelessness
Fermi estimate
Risk aversion
Model uncertainty
Disentanglement research
Indirect long-term effects
Philanthropic diversification
Crucial consideration
Moral offsetting
Meat-eater problem
Broad vs. narrow interventions
Hilary Greaves
142 posts
Rationality
Epistemic deference
Epistemology
Statistics
Cognitive bias
Optimizer's curse
Bayesian epistemology
Scope neglect
Independent impression
Giving and happiness
Thinking at the margin
Conflict theory vs. mistake theory
112
Clarifications on diminishing returns and risk aversion in giving
Robert_Wiblin
25d
25
15
How Many Lives Does X-Risk Work Save From Nonexistence On Average?
Jordan Arel
12d
10
13
Simple BOTEC on X-Risk Work for Neartermists
Phosphorous
18d
10
108
EAs underestimate uncertainty in cause prioritisation
freedomandutility
3mo
20
12
The moral problem of offsetting
Yatlas
1mo
0
46
Introduction to Fermi estimates
NunoSempere
3mo
5
65
Meat Externalities
Richard Y Chappell
5mo
12
48
Why does GiveWell not provide lower and upper estimates for the cost-effectiveness of its top charities?
Vasco Grilo
4mo
8
27
Guesstimate Algorithm for Medical Research
Elizabeth
2mo
2
105
A practical guide to long-term planning – and suggestions for longtermism
weeatquince
1y
12
23
We’re really bad at guessing the future
Benj Azose
4mo
2
28
Concerns with Difference-Making Risk Aversion
Charlotte
6mo
1
117
Evidence, cluelessness, and the long term - Hilary Greaves
james
2y
85
41
What's your prior probability that "good things are good" (for the long-term future)?
Linch
10mo
12
162
EA should blurt
RobBensinger
28d
26
87
Beware frictions from altruistic value differences
Magnus Vinding
19d
6
19
The Last Temptation of Christ (Alexander, 2012)
Will Aldred
11d
1
37
Tyranny of the Epistemic Majority
Scott Garrabrant
28d
2
104
When reporting AI timelines, be clear who you're (not) deferring to
Sam Clarke
2mo
20
98
Invisible impact loss (and why we can be too error-averse)
Lizka
2mo
14
19
The Geometric Expectation
Scott Garrabrant
27d
0
54
Scout Mindset Poster
Anthony Fleming
2mo
8
17
Geometric Exploration, Arithmetic Exploitation
Scott Garrabrant
26d
0
162
Global health is important for the epistemic foundations of EA, even for longtermists
Owen Cotton-Barratt
6mo
16
146
Deference Culture in EA
Joey
6mo
23
22
Critically Engaging with Long Articles
Elliot Temple
1mo
2
11
Good decisions
Yadav
24d
3
89
Limits to Legibility
Jan_Kulveit
5mo
3