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alive
57 posts
Cluelessness
Fermi estimate
Risk aversion
Model uncertainty
Disentanglement research
Indirect long-term effects
Philanthropic diversification
Crucial consideration
Moral offsetting
Meat-eater problem
Broad vs. narrow interventions
Hilary Greaves
142 posts
Rationality
Epistemic deference
Epistemology
Statistics
Cognitive bias
Optimizer's curse
Bayesian epistemology
Scope neglect
Independent impression
Giving and happiness
Thinking at the margin
Conflict theory vs. mistake theory
117
Evidence, cluelessness, and the long term - Hilary Greaves
james
2y
85
112
Clarifications on diminishing returns and risk aversion in giving
Robert_Wiblin
25d
25
108
EAs underestimate uncertainty in cause prioritisation
freedomandutility
3mo
20
105
A practical guide to long-term planning – and suggestions for longtermism
weeatquince
1y
12
65
Meat Externalities
Richard Y Chappell
5mo
12
54
Doing good while clueless
Milan_Griffes
4y
8
51
Hedging against deep and moral uncertainty
MichaelStJules
2y
11
48
Why does GiveWell not provide lower and upper estimates for the cost-effectiveness of its top charities?
Vasco Grilo
4mo
8
46
Introduction to Fermi estimates
NunoSempere
3mo
5
43
Complex cluelessness as credal fragility
Gregory Lewis
1y
50
41
What's your prior probability that "good things are good" (for the long-term future)?
Linch
10mo
12
39
Ethical offsetting is antithetical to EA
ClaireZabel
6y
78
37
What should we call the other problem of cluelessness?
Owen Cotton-Barratt
1y
22
32
What consequences?
Milan_Griffes
5y
22
244
List of ways in which cost-effectiveness estimates can be misleading
saulius
3y
30
218
Reality is often underpowered
Gregory Lewis
3y
17
177
Flimsy Pet Theories, Enormous Initiatives
Ozzie Gooen
1y
57
166
Beware surprising and suspicious convergence
Gregory Lewis
6y
22
162
Global health is important for the epistemic foundations of EA, even for longtermists
Owen Cotton-Barratt
6mo
16
162
EA should blurt
RobBensinger
28d
26
146
Deference Culture in EA
Joey
6mo
23
132
Some thoughts on deference and inside-view models
Buck
2y
31
123
Independent impressions
MichaelA
1y
7
118
In defence of epistemic modesty
Gregory Lewis
5y
49
104
When reporting AI timelines, be clear who you're (not) deferring to
Sam Clarke
2mo
20
98
Invisible impact loss (and why we can be too error-averse)
Lizka
2mo
14
89
Deference for Bayesians
John G. Halstead
1y
30
89
Limits to Legibility
Jan_Kulveit
5mo
3