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199 posts
Rationality
Epistemic deference
Cluelessness
Epistemology
Statistics
Cognitive bias
Fermi estimate
Risk aversion
Model uncertainty
Indirect long-term effects
Disentanglement research
Philanthropic diversification
205 posts
Forecasting
Research summary
Metaculus
Newsletters
Long-range forecasting
Forecasting Newsletter
Research
Prediction markets
Weekly Summaries (project)
Arb
Future Matters
Manifold Markets
244
List of ways in which cost-effectiveness estimates can be misleading
saulius
3y
30
218
Reality is often underpowered
Gregory Lewis
3y
17
177
Flimsy Pet Theories, Enormous Initiatives
Ozzie Gooen
1y
57
166
Beware surprising and suspicious convergence
Gregory Lewis
6y
22
162
Global health is important for the epistemic foundations of EA, even for longtermists
Owen Cotton-Barratt
6mo
16
162
EA should blurt
RobBensinger
28d
26
146
Deference Culture in EA
Joey
6mo
23
132
Some thoughts on deference and inside-view models
Buck
2y
31
123
Independent impressions
MichaelA
1y
7
118
In defence of epistemic modesty
Gregory Lewis
5y
49
117
Evidence, cluelessness, and the long term - Hilary Greaves
james
2y
85
112
Clarifications on diminishing returns and risk aversion in giving
Robert_Wiblin
25d
25
108
EAs underestimate uncertainty in cause prioritisation
freedomandutility
3mo
20
105
A practical guide to long-term planning – and suggestions for longtermism
weeatquince
1y
12
310
Introducing Asterisk
Clara Collier
6mo
33
243
Announcing the first issue of Asterisk
Clara Collier
29d
47
173
Comparing top forecasters and domain experts
Gavin
9mo
39
140
Samotsvety Nuclear Risk Forecasts — March 2022
NunoSempere
9mo
55
134
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (21 Aug - 27 Aug 22’)
Zoe Williams
3mo
14
131
How accurate are Open Phil's predictions?
Javier Prieto
6mo
18
125
Introducing Metaforecast: A Forecast Aggregator and Search Tool
NunoSempere
1y
17
123
Rational predictions often update predictably*
Gregory Lewis
7mo
14
102
Does putting kids in school now put money in their pockets later? Revisiting a natural experiment in Indonesia
David Roodman
25d
24
98
Finding before funding: Why EA should probably invest more in research
Falk Lieder
4mo
11
96
Data on forecasting accuracy across different time horizons and levels of forecaster experience
Charles Dillon
1y
6
90
When pooling forecasts, use the geometric mean of odds
Jaime Sevilla
1y
59
87
Formalising the "Washing Out Hypothesis"
dwebb
1y
24
85
Impactful Forecasting Prize for forecast writeups on curated Metaculus questions
elifland
10mo
13