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199 posts
Rationality
Epistemic deference
Cluelessness
Epistemology
Statistics
Cognitive bias
Fermi estimate
Risk aversion
Model uncertainty
Indirect long-term effects
Disentanglement research
Philanthropic diversification
205 posts
Forecasting
Research summary
Metaculus
Newsletters
Long-range forecasting
Forecasting Newsletter
Research
Prediction markets
Weekly Summaries (project)
Arb
Future Matters
Manifold Markets
162
EA should blurt
RobBensinger
28d
26
87
Beware frictions from altruistic value differences
Magnus Vinding
19d
6
112
Clarifications on diminishing returns and risk aversion in giving
Robert_Wiblin
25d
25
19
The Last Temptation of Christ (Alexander, 2012)
Will Aldred
11d
1
15
How Many Lives Does X-Risk Work Save From Nonexistence On Average?
Jordan Arel
12d
10
37
Tyranny of the Epistemic Majority
Scott Garrabrant
28d
2
104
When reporting AI timelines, be clear who you're (not) deferring to
Sam Clarke
2mo
20
98
Invisible impact loss (and why we can be too error-averse)
Lizka
2mo
14
13
Simple BOTEC on X-Risk Work for Neartermists
Phosphorous
18d
10
108
EAs underestimate uncertainty in cause prioritisation
freedomandutility
3mo
20
19
The Geometric Expectation
Scott Garrabrant
27d
0
54
Scout Mindset Poster
Anthony Fleming
2mo
8
17
Geometric Exploration, Arithmetic Exploitation
Scott Garrabrant
26d
0
162
Global health is important for the epistemic foundations of EA, even for longtermists
Owen Cotton-Barratt
6mo
16
62
Radical tactics can increase support for more moderate groups
James Ozden
4d
11
74
Creating a database for base rates
nikos
8d
7
243
Announcing the first issue of Asterisk
Clara Collier
29d
47
50
Contrarians as a reference class
Will Aldred
10d
0
14
Paper summary: The paralysis argument (William MacAskill and Andreas Mogensen)
Global Priorities Institute
4d
3
102
Does putting kids in school now put money in their pockets later? Revisiting a natural experiment in Indonesia
David Roodman
25d
24
13
The EA Behavioral Science Newsletter #7 (December 2022)
PeterSlattery
5d
0
26
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (28th Nov - 4th Dec 22')
Zoe Williams
14d
0
49
Tracking the money flows in forecasting
NunoSempere
1mo
4
310
Introducing Asterisk
Clara Collier
6mo
33
134
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (21 Aug - 27 Aug 22’)
Zoe Williams
3mo
14
98
Finding before funding: Why EA should probably invest more in research
Falk Lieder
4mo
11
43
Paper summary: The Epistemic Challenge to Longtermism (Christian Tarsney)
Global Priorities Institute
2mo
5
131
How accurate are Open Phil's predictions?
Javier Prieto
6mo
18