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127 posts
Forecasting
Long-range forecasting
Metaculus
Forecasting Newsletter
78 posts
Research summary
Newsletters
Research
Prediction markets
Weekly Summaries (project)
Future Matters
Expertise
Arb
Effective Altruism Behavioral Science Newsletter
Manifold Markets
Asterisk
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
74
Creating a database for base rates
nikos
8d
7
50
Contrarians as a reference class
Will Aldred
10d
0
49
Tracking the money flows in forecasting
NunoSempere
1mo
4
131
How accurate are Open Phil's predictions?
Javier Prieto
6mo
18
37
Epistemics-Improving Activities for Groups and Friends
ChanaMessinger
2mo
7
50
[Linkpost] Dan Luu: Futurist prediction methods and accuracy
Linch
3mo
7
123
Rational predictions often update predictably*
Gregory Lewis
7mo
14
10
The biggest red flag about SBF
trevor1
26d
11
140
Samotsvety Nuclear Risk Forecasts — March 2022
NunoSempere
9mo
55
45
[Cause Exploration Prizes] Training experts to be forecasters
Sam Abbott
3mo
9
13
Is there a good web app for doing the "equivalent bet test" from "How To Measure Anything"?
nonzerosum
1mo
1
39
Superforecasting Long-Term Risks and Climate Change
LuisEUrtubey
4mo
0
9
Forecasting Newsletter for October 2022
NunoSempere
1mo
0
33
Updating on the passage of time and conditional prediction curves
Jonas Moss
4mo
6
62
Radical tactics can increase support for more moderate groups
James Ozden
4d
11
243
Announcing the first issue of Asterisk
Clara Collier
29d
47
14
Paper summary: The paralysis argument (William MacAskill and Andreas Mogensen)
Global Priorities Institute
4d
3
102
Does putting kids in school now put money in their pockets later? Revisiting a natural experiment in Indonesia
David Roodman
25d
24
13
The EA Behavioral Science Newsletter #7 (December 2022)
PeterSlattery
5d
0
26
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (28th Nov - 4th Dec 22')
Zoe Williams
14d
0
310
Introducing Asterisk
Clara Collier
6mo
33
134
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (21 Aug - 27 Aug 22’)
Zoe Williams
3mo
14
98
Finding before funding: Why EA should probably invest more in research
Falk Lieder
4mo
11
43
Paper summary: The Epistemic Challenge to Longtermism (Christian Tarsney)
Global Priorities Institute
2mo
5
10
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (14th Nov - 27th Nov 22')
Zoe Williams
21d
0
27
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (17 - 23 Oct 22')
Zoe Williams
1mo
2
23
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (24 - 30th Oct 22')
Zoe Williams
1mo
0
173
Comparing top forecasters and domain experts
Gavin
9mo
39