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127 posts Forecasting Long-range forecasting Metaculus Forecasting Newsletter
78 posts Research summary Newsletters Research Prediction markets Weekly Summaries (project) Future Matters Expertise Arb Effective Altruism Behavioral Science Newsletter Manifold Markets Asterisk Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
70 Creating a database for base rates
nikos
8d
7
28 Contrarians as a reference class
Will Aldred
10d
0
74 Tracking the money flows in forecasting
NunoSempere
1mo
4
23 The biggest red flag about SBF
trevor1
26d
11
156 How accurate are Open Phil's predictions?
Javier Prieto
6mo
18
15 Forecasting Newsletter for October 2022
NunoSempere
1mo
0
63 [Linkpost] Dan Luu: Futurist prediction methods and accuracy
Linch
3mo
7
14 Is there a good web app for doing the "equivalent bet test" from "How To Measure Anything"?
nonzerosum
1mo
1
45 Epistemics-Improving Activities for Groups and Friends
ChanaMessinger
2mo
7
137 Rational predictions often update predictably*
Gregory Lewis
7mo
14
155 Samotsvety Nuclear Risk Forecasts — March 2022
NunoSempere
9mo
55
49 [Cause Exploration Prizes] Training experts to be forecasters
Sam Abbott
3mo
9
23 Forecasting Newsletter: September 2022.
NunoSempere
2mo
0
47 Superforecasting Long-Term Risks and Climate Change
LuisEUrtubey
4mo
0
76 Radical tactics can increase support for more moderate groups
James Ozden
4d
11
275 Announcing the first issue of Asterisk
Clara Collier
29d
47
18 Paper summary: The paralysis argument (William MacAskill and Andreas Mogensen)
Global Priorities Institute
4d
3
14 The EA Behavioral Science Newsletter #7 (December 2022)
PeterSlattery
5d
0
119 Does putting kids in school now put money in their pockets later? Revisiting a natural experiment in Indonesia
David Roodman
25d
24
33 EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (28th Nov - 4th Dec 22')
Zoe Williams
14d
0
17 EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (14th Nov - 27th Nov 22')
Zoe Williams
21d
0
144 EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (21 Aug - 27 Aug 22’)
Zoe Williams
3mo
14
286 Introducing Asterisk
Clara Collier
6mo
33
102 Finding before funding: Why EA should probably invest more in research
Falk Lieder
4mo
11
35 EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (17 - 23 Oct 22')
Zoe Williams
1mo
2
23 EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (24 - 30th Oct 22')
Zoe Williams
1mo
0
37 Paper summary: The Epistemic Challenge to Longtermism (Christian Tarsney)
Global Priorities Institute
2mo
5
34 Questions about and Objections to  'Sharing the World with Digital Minds' (2020)
Dr. David Mathers
2mo
3