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102 posts
Forecasting
Forecasting Newsletter
25 posts
Long-range forecasting
Metaculus
70
Creating a database for base rates
nikos
8d
7
28
Contrarians as a reference class
Will Aldred
10d
0
74
Tracking the money flows in forecasting
NunoSempere
1mo
4
23
The biggest red flag about SBF
trevor1
26d
11
156
How accurate are Open Phil's predictions?
Javier Prieto
6mo
18
15
Forecasting Newsletter for October 2022
NunoSempere
1mo
0
14
Is there a good web app for doing the "equivalent bet test" from "How To Measure Anything"?
nonzerosum
1mo
1
45
Epistemics-Improving Activities for Groups and Friends
ChanaMessinger
2mo
7
137
Rational predictions often update predictably*
Gregory Lewis
7mo
14
155
Samotsvety Nuclear Risk Forecasts — March 2022
NunoSempere
9mo
55
49
[Cause Exploration Prizes] Training experts to be forecasters
Sam Abbott
3mo
9
23
Forecasting Newsletter: September 2022.
NunoSempere
2mo
0
29
Forecasting Newsletter: August 2022.
NunoSempere
3mo
2
49
Forecasting Newsletter: June 2022
NunoSempere
5mo
4
63
[Linkpost] Dan Luu: Futurist prediction methods and accuracy
Linch
3mo
7
47
Superforecasting Long-Term Risks and Climate Change
LuisEUrtubey
4mo
0
16
Probability of extinction for various types of catastrophes
Vasco Grilo
2mo
0
58
Getting GPT-3 to predict Metaculus questions
MathiasKB
7mo
6
11
The collaborative exploration of alternative futures - a free to use online tool
rickjdavies
3mo
0
40
Impactful Forecasting Prize Results and Reflections
elifland
8mo
10
113
Data on forecasting accuracy across different time horizons and levels of forecaster experience
Charles Dillon
1y
6
40
6 Year Decrease of Metaculus AGI Prediction
Chris Leong
8mo
6
69
An examination of Metaculus' resolved AI predictions and their implications for AI timelines
Charles Dillon
1y
0
13
Metaculus is seeking experienced leaders, researchers & operators for high-impact roles
christian
5mo
0
46
Bottlenecks to more impactful crowd forecasting
elifland
11mo
2
46
An estimate of the value of Metaculus questions
NunoSempere
1y
19
25
Prediction Bank: A way around current prediction market regulations?
Gaurav Sett
10mo
12
50
An analysis of Metaculus predictions of future EA resources, 2025 and 2030
Charles Dillon
1y
2