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meritocratic regular democratic

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102 posts Forecasting Forecasting Newsletter

25 posts Long-range forecasting Metaculus

74 Creating a database for base rates

nikos

8d

7

50 Contrarians as a reference class

Will Aldred

10d

0

49 Tracking the money flows in forecasting

NunoSempere

1mo

4

131 How accurate are Open Phil's predictions?

Javier Prieto

6mo

18

37 Epistemics-Improving Activities for Groups and Friends

ChanaMessinger

2mo

7

123 Rational predictions often update predictably*

Gregory Lewis

7mo

14

10 The biggest red flag about SBF

trevor1

26d

11

140 Samotsvety Nuclear Risk Forecasts — March 2022

NunoSempere

9mo

55

45 [Cause Exploration Prizes] Training experts to be forecasters

Sam Abbott

3mo

9

13 Is there a good web app for doing the "equivalent bet test" from "How To Measure Anything"?

nonzerosum

1mo

1

9 Forecasting Newsletter for October 2022

NunoSempere

1mo

0

33 Updating on the passage of time and conditional prediction curves

Jonas Moss

4mo

6

85 Impactful Forecasting Prize for forecast writeups on curated Metaculus questions

elifland

10mo

13

37 Forecasting Newsletter: June 2022

NunoSempere

5mo

4

50 [Linkpost] Dan Luu: Futurist prediction methods and accuracy

Linch

3mo

7

39 Superforecasting Long-Term Risks and Climate Change

LuisEUrtubey

4mo

0

53 Getting GPT-3 to predict Metaculus questions

MathiasKB

7mo

6

11 Probability of extinction for various types of catastrophes

Vasco Grilo

2mo

0

17 The collaborative exploration of alternative futures - a free to use online tool

rickjdavies

3mo

0

40 6 Year Decrease of Metaculus AGI Prediction

Chris Leong

8mo

6

96 Data on forecasting accuracy across different time horizons and levels of forecaster experience

1y

6

38 Impactful Forecasting Prize Results and Reflections

elifland

8mo

10

36 Bottlenecks to more impactful crowd forecasting

elifland

11mo

2

14 Metaculus is seeking experienced leaders, researchers & operators for high-impact roles

christian

5mo

0

42 How does forecast quantity impact forecast quality on Metaculus?

1y

12

48 An examination of Metaculus' resolved AI predictions and their implications for AI timelines

1y

0

37 An estimate of the value of Metaculus questions

NunoSempere

1y

19

37 An analysis of Metaculus predictions of future EA resources, 2025 and 2030

1y

2