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102 posts
Forecasting
Forecasting Newsletter
25 posts
Long-range forecasting
Metaculus
140
Samotsvety Nuclear Risk Forecasts — March 2022
NunoSempere
9mo
55
131
How accurate are Open Phil's predictions?
Javier Prieto
6mo
18
125
Introducing Metaforecast: A Forecast Aggregator and Search Tool
NunoSempere
1y
17
123
Rational predictions often update predictably*
Gregory Lewis
7mo
14
90
When pooling forecasts, use the geometric mean of odds
Jaime Sevilla
1y
59
87
Formalising the "Washing Out Hypothesis"
dwebb
1y
24
85
Impactful Forecasting Prize for forecast writeups on curated Metaculus questions
elifland
10mo
13
80
Use resilience, instead of imprecision, to communicate uncertainty
Gregory Lewis
2y
34
74
Creating a database for base rates
nikos
8d
7
70
Evidence on good forecasting practices from the Good Judgment Project: an accompanying blog post
kokotajlod
3y
14
68
Pablo Stafforini’s Forecasting System
jungofthewon
2y
9
64
Some learnings I had from forecasting in 2020
Linch
2y
8
55
Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize
Ozzie Gooen
2y
7
54
Affective forecasting: The challenge of predicting future feelings and the implications for global priorities research
Matt Coleman
10mo
2
96
Data on forecasting accuracy across different time horizons and levels of forecaster experience
Charles Dillon
1y
6
53
Getting GPT-3 to predict Metaculus questions
MathiasKB
7mo
6
50
[Linkpost] Dan Luu: Futurist prediction methods and accuracy
Linch
3mo
7
48
An examination of Metaculus' resolved AI predictions and their implications for AI timelines
Charles Dillon
1y
0
42
How does forecast quantity impact forecast quality on Metaculus?
Charles Dillon
1y
12
40
6 Year Decrease of Metaculus AGI Prediction
Chris Leong
8mo
6
39
Superforecasting Long-Term Risks and Climate Change
LuisEUrtubey
4mo
0
38
Impactful Forecasting Prize Results and Reflections
elifland
8mo
10
37
An analysis of Metaculus predictions of future EA resources, 2025 and 2030
Charles Dillon
1y
2
37
An estimate of the value of Metaculus questions
NunoSempere
1y
19
36
Bottlenecks to more impactful crowd forecasting
elifland
11mo
2
30
Superforecasting in a nutshell
lukeprog
1y
2
30
What important questions are missing from Metaculus?
Charles Dillon
1y
12
27
[Link] "How feasible is long-range forecasting?" (Open Phil)
Milan_Griffes
3y
7