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11 posts
Long-range forecasting
14 posts
Metaculus
96
Data on forecasting accuracy across different time horizons and levels of forecaster experience
Charles Dillon
1y
6
50
[Linkpost] Dan Luu: Futurist prediction methods and accuracy
Linch
3mo
7
39
Superforecasting Long-Term Risks and Climate Change
LuisEUrtubey
4mo
0
30
Superforecasting in a nutshell
lukeprog
1y
2
30
What important questions are missing from Metaculus?
Charles Dillon
1y
12
27
[Link] "How feasible is long-range forecasting?" (Open Phil)
Milan_Griffes
3y
7
20
David Rhys Bernard: Estimating long-term effects without long-term data
EA Global
2y
0
17
The collaborative exploration of alternative futures - a free to use online tool
rickjdavies
3mo
0
10
Mogensen & MacAskill, 'The paralysis argument'
Pablo
1y
2
6
Efforts to Improve the Accuracy of Our Judgments and Forecasts (Open Philanthropy)
lukeprog
6y
0
6
Christian Tarsney: Can we predictably improve the far future?
EA Global
3y
0
53
Getting GPT-3 to predict Metaculus questions
MathiasKB
7mo
6
48
An examination of Metaculus' resolved AI predictions and their implications for AI timelines
Charles Dillon
1y
0
42
How does forecast quantity impact forecast quality on Metaculus?
Charles Dillon
1y
12
40
6 Year Decrease of Metaculus AGI Prediction
Chris Leong
8mo
6
38
Impactful Forecasting Prize Results and Reflections
elifland
8mo
10
37
An analysis of Metaculus predictions of future EA resources, 2025 and 2030
Charles Dillon
1y
2
37
An estimate of the value of Metaculus questions
NunoSempere
1y
19
36
Bottlenecks to more impactful crowd forecasting
elifland
11mo
2
26
Announcing the Bentham Prize
Pablo
2y
1
22
Prediction Bank: A way around current prediction market regulations?
Gaurav Sett
10mo
12
17
Metaculus seeking Analytical Storytellers to write essays fortified with testable predictions
christian
1y
4
14
Metaculus is seeking experienced leaders, researchers & operators for high-impact roles
christian
5mo
0
11
Probability of extinction for various types of catastrophes
Vasco Grilo
2mo
0
9
Top open Metaculus forecasts
EA Handbook
5mo
0