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11 posts
Long-range forecasting
14 posts
Metaculus
130
Data on forecasting accuracy across different time horizons and levels of forecaster experience
Charles Dillon
1y
6
76
[Linkpost] Dan Luu: Futurist prediction methods and accuracy
Linch
3mo
7
57
[Link] "How feasible is long-range forecasting?" (Open Phil)
Milan_Griffes
3y
7
55
Superforecasting Long-Term Risks and Climate Change
LuisEUrtubey
4mo
0
46
What important questions are missing from Metaculus?
Charles Dillon
1y
12
44
Superforecasting in a nutshell
lukeprog
1y
2
26
David Rhys Bernard: Estimating long-term effects without long-term data
EA Global
2y
0
20
Mogensen & MacAskill, 'The paralysis argument'
Pablo
1y
2
16
Efforts to Improve the Accuracy of Our Judgments and Forecasts (Open Philanthropy)
lukeprog
6y
0
12
Christian Tarsney: Can we predictably improve the far future?
EA Global
3y
0
5
The collaborative exploration of alternative futures - a free to use online tool
rickjdavies
3mo
0
90
An examination of Metaculus' resolved AI predictions and their implications for AI timelines
Charles Dillon
1y
0
63
An analysis of Metaculus predictions of future EA resources, 2025 and 2030
Charles Dillon
1y
2
63
Getting GPT-3 to predict Metaculus questions
MathiasKB
7mo
6
56
Bottlenecks to more impactful crowd forecasting
elifland
11mo
2
55
An estimate of the value of Metaculus questions
NunoSempere
1y
19
52
How does forecast quantity impact forecast quality on Metaculus?
Charles Dillon
1y
12
42
Impactful Forecasting Prize Results and Reflections
elifland
8mo
10
40
Announcing the Bentham Prize
Pablo
2y
1
40
6 Year Decrease of Metaculus AGI Prediction
Chris Leong
8mo
6
28
Prediction Bank: A way around current prediction market regulations?
Gaurav Sett
10mo
12
21
Probability of extinction for various types of catastrophes
Vasco Grilo
2mo
0
15
Metaculus seeking Analytical Storytellers to write essays fortified with testable predictions
christian
1y
4
12
Metaculus is seeking experienced leaders, researchers & operators for high-impact roles
christian
5mo
0
-1
Top open Metaculus forecasts
EA Handbook
5mo
0