Go Back
Choose this branch
Choose this branch
meritocratic
regular
democratic
hot
top
alive
102 posts
Forecasting
Forecasting Newsletter
25 posts
Long-range forecasting
Metaculus
181
How accurate are Open Phil's predictions?
Javier Prieto
6mo
18
170
Samotsvety Nuclear Risk Forecasts — March 2022
NunoSempere
9mo
55
151
Rational predictions often update predictably*
Gregory Lewis
7mo
14
139
Introducing Metaforecast: A Forecast Aggregator and Search Tool
NunoSempere
1y
17
112
Use resilience, instead of imprecision, to communicate uncertainty
Gregory Lewis
2y
34
110
Some learnings I had from forecasting in 2020
Linch
2y
8
104
When pooling forecasts, use the geometric mean of odds
Jaime Sevilla
1y
59
103
Formalising the "Washing Out Hypothesis"
dwebb
1y
24
99
Tracking the money flows in forecasting
NunoSempere
1mo
4
97
Impactful Forecasting Prize for forecast writeups on curated Metaculus questions
elifland
10mo
13
88
Evidence on good forecasting practices from the Good Judgment Project: an accompanying blog post
kokotajlod
3y
14
78
Pablo Stafforini’s Forecasting System
jungofthewon
2y
9
74
Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions.
alexrjl
2y
13
73
Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize
Ozzie Gooen
2y
7
130
Data on forecasting accuracy across different time horizons and levels of forecaster experience
Charles Dillon
1y
6
90
An examination of Metaculus' resolved AI predictions and their implications for AI timelines
Charles Dillon
1y
0
76
[Linkpost] Dan Luu: Futurist prediction methods and accuracy
Linch
3mo
7
63
An analysis of Metaculus predictions of future EA resources, 2025 and 2030
Charles Dillon
1y
2
63
Getting GPT-3 to predict Metaculus questions
MathiasKB
7mo
6
57
[Link] "How feasible is long-range forecasting?" (Open Phil)
Milan_Griffes
3y
7
56
Bottlenecks to more impactful crowd forecasting
elifland
11mo
2
55
Superforecasting Long-Term Risks and Climate Change
LuisEUrtubey
4mo
0
55
An estimate of the value of Metaculus questions
NunoSempere
1y
19
52
How does forecast quantity impact forecast quality on Metaculus?
Charles Dillon
1y
12
46
What important questions are missing from Metaculus?
Charles Dillon
1y
12
44
Superforecasting in a nutshell
lukeprog
1y
2
42
Impactful Forecasting Prize Results and Reflections
elifland
8mo
10
40
Announcing the Bentham Prize
Pablo
2y
1