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78 posts
Forecasting
Forecasting Newsletter
24 posts
181
How accurate are Open Phil's predictions?
Javier Prieto
6mo
18
170
Samotsvety Nuclear Risk Forecasts — March 2022
NunoSempere
9mo
55
151
Rational predictions often update predictably*
Gregory Lewis
7mo
14
139
Introducing Metaforecast: A Forecast Aggregator and Search Tool
NunoSempere
1y
17
112
Use resilience, instead of imprecision, to communicate uncertainty
Gregory Lewis
2y
34
110
Some learnings I had from forecasting in 2020
Linch
2y
8
104
When pooling forecasts, use the geometric mean of odds
Jaime Sevilla
1y
59
103
Formalising the "Washing Out Hypothesis"
dwebb
1y
24
99
Tracking the money flows in forecasting
NunoSempere
1mo
4
97
Impactful Forecasting Prize for forecast writeups on curated Metaculus questions
elifland
10mo
13
88
Evidence on good forecasting practices from the Good Judgment Project: an accompanying blog post
kokotajlod
3y
14
78
Pablo Stafforini’s Forecasting System
jungofthewon
2y
9
74
Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions.
alexrjl
2y
13
73
Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize
Ozzie Gooen
2y
7
61
Forecasting Newsletter: June 2022
NunoSempere
5mo
4
55
Forecasting Newsletter: April 2022
NunoSempere
7mo
2
48
Forecasting Newsletter: December 2021
NunoSempere
11mo
0
41
2020: Forecasting in Review
NunoSempere
1y
7
39
Forecasting Newsletter: May 2022
NunoSempere
6mo
5
37
Forecasting Newsletter: November 2020.
NunoSempere
2y
0
36
Forecasting Newsletter: June 2021
NunoSempere
1y
0
34
Forecasting Newsletter: July 2022
NunoSempere
4mo
0
33
Forecasting Newsletter: September 2022.
NunoSempere
2mo
0
32
Forecasting Newsletter: November 2021
NunoSempere
1y
2
32
Forecasting Newsletter: July 2020.
NunoSempere
2y
1
29
Forecasting Newsletter: August 2021
NunoSempere
1y
2
28
Forecasting Newsletter: April 2021
NunoSempere
1y
0
25
Forecasting Newsletter: March 2021
NunoSempere
1y
0