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meritocratic
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78 posts
Forecasting
Forecasting Newsletter
24 posts
66
Creating a database for base rates
nikos
8d
7
99
Tracking the money flows in forecasting
NunoSempere
1mo
4
36
The biggest red flag about SBF
trevor1
26d
11
181
How accurate are Open Phil's predictions?
Javier Prieto
6mo
18
6
Contrarians as a reference class
Will Aldred
10d
0
53
Epistemics-Improving Activities for Groups and Friends
ChanaMessinger
2mo
7
151
Rational predictions often update predictably*
Gregory Lewis
7mo
14
170
Samotsvety Nuclear Risk Forecasts — March 2022
NunoSempere
9mo
55
53
[Cause Exploration Prizes] Training experts to be forecasters
Sam Abbott
3mo
9
15
Is there a good web app for doing the "equivalent bet test" from "How To Measure Anything"?
nonzerosum
1mo
1
41
Forecasting Newsletter: August 2022.
NunoSempere
3mo
2
39
Updating on the passage of time and conditional prediction curves
Jonas Moss
4mo
6
97
Impactful Forecasting Prize for forecast writeups on curated Metaculus questions
elifland
10mo
13
53
Participate in the Hybrid Forecasting-Persuasion Tournament (on X-risk topics)
Jhrosenberg
7mo
4
21
Forecasting Newsletter for October 2022
NunoSempere
1mo
0
33
Forecasting Newsletter: September 2022.
NunoSempere
2mo
0
61
Forecasting Newsletter: June 2022
NunoSempere
5mo
4
34
Forecasting Newsletter: July 2022
NunoSempere
4mo
0
55
Forecasting Newsletter: April 2022
NunoSempere
7mo
2
39
Forecasting Newsletter: May 2022
NunoSempere
6mo
5
48
Forecasting Newsletter: December 2021
NunoSempere
11mo
0
24
Forecasting Newsletter: March 2022
NunoSempere
8mo
3
32
Forecasting Newsletter: November 2021
NunoSempere
1y
2
22
Forecasting Newsletter: January 2022
NunoSempere
10mo
1
36
Forecasting Newsletter: June 2021
NunoSempere
1y
0
29
Forecasting Newsletter: August 2021
NunoSempere
1y
2
25
Forecasting Newsletter: September 2021.
NunoSempere
1y
0
41
2020: Forecasting in Review
NunoSempere
1y
7