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78 posts
Forecasting
Forecasting Newsletter
24 posts
70
Creating a database for base rates
nikos
8d
7
28
Contrarians as a reference class
Will Aldred
10d
0
74
Tracking the money flows in forecasting
NunoSempere
1mo
4
23
The biggest red flag about SBF
trevor1
26d
11
156
How accurate are Open Phil's predictions?
Javier Prieto
6mo
18
14
Is there a good web app for doing the "equivalent bet test" from "How To Measure Anything"?
nonzerosum
1mo
1
45
Epistemics-Improving Activities for Groups and Friends
ChanaMessinger
2mo
7
137
Rational predictions often update predictably*
Gregory Lewis
7mo
14
155
Samotsvety Nuclear Risk Forecasts — March 2022
NunoSempere
9mo
55
49
[Cause Exploration Prizes] Training experts to be forecasters
Sam Abbott
3mo
9
29
Forecasting Newsletter: August 2022.
NunoSempere
3mo
2
36
Updating on the passage of time and conditional prediction curves
Jonas Moss
4mo
6
91
Impactful Forecasting Prize for forecast writeups on curated Metaculus questions
elifland
10mo
13
52
Participate in the Hybrid Forecasting-Persuasion Tournament (on X-risk topics)
Jhrosenberg
7mo
4
15
Forecasting Newsletter for October 2022
NunoSempere
1mo
0
23
Forecasting Newsletter: September 2022.
NunoSempere
2mo
0
49
Forecasting Newsletter: June 2022
NunoSempere
5mo
4
30
Forecasting Newsletter: July 2022
NunoSempere
4mo
0
44
Forecasting Newsletter: April 2022
NunoSempere
7mo
2
31
Forecasting Newsletter: May 2022
NunoSempere
6mo
5
37
Forecasting Newsletter: December 2021
NunoSempere
11mo
0
21
Forecasting Newsletter: March 2022
NunoSempere
8mo
3
16
Forecasting Newsletter: January 2022
NunoSempere
10mo
1
20
Forecasting Newsletter: September 2021.
NunoSempere
1y
0
35
2020: Forecasting in Review
NunoSempere
1y
7
29
Forecasting Newsletter: June 2021
NunoSempere
1y
0
23
Forecasting Newsletter: November 2021
NunoSempere
1y
2
24
Forecasting Newsletter: August 2021
NunoSempere
1y
2