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78 posts
Forecasting
Forecasting Newsletter
24 posts
156
How accurate are Open Phil's predictions?
Javier Prieto
6mo
18
155
Samotsvety Nuclear Risk Forecasts — March 2022
NunoSempere
9mo
55
137
Rational predictions often update predictably*
Gregory Lewis
7mo
14
132
Introducing Metaforecast: A Forecast Aggregator and Search Tool
NunoSempere
1y
17
97
When pooling forecasts, use the geometric mean of odds
Jaime Sevilla
1y
59
96
Use resilience, instead of imprecision, to communicate uncertainty
Gregory Lewis
2y
34
95
Formalising the "Washing Out Hypothesis"
dwebb
1y
24
91
Impactful Forecasting Prize for forecast writeups on curated Metaculus questions
elifland
10mo
13
87
Some learnings I had from forecasting in 2020
Linch
2y
8
79
Evidence on good forecasting practices from the Good Judgment Project: an accompanying blog post
kokotajlod
3y
14
74
Tracking the money flows in forecasting
NunoSempere
1mo
4
73
Pablo Stafforini’s Forecasting System
jungofthewon
2y
9
70
Creating a database for base rates
nikos
8d
7
64
Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize
Ozzie Gooen
2y
7
49
Forecasting Newsletter: June 2022
NunoSempere
5mo
4
44
Forecasting Newsletter: April 2022
NunoSempere
7mo
2
37
Forecasting Newsletter: December 2021
NunoSempere
11mo
0
35
2020: Forecasting in Review
NunoSempere
1y
7
33
Forecasting Newsletter: November 2020.
NunoSempere
2y
0
31
Forecasting Newsletter: May 2022
NunoSempere
6mo
5
31
Forecasting Newsletter: July 2020.
NunoSempere
2y
1
30
Forecasting Newsletter: July 2022
NunoSempere
4mo
0
29
Forecasting Newsletter: June 2021
NunoSempere
1y
0
24
Forecasting Newsletter: August 2021
NunoSempere
1y
2
23
Forecasting Newsletter: November 2021
NunoSempere
1y
2
23
Forecasting Newsletter: September 2022.
NunoSempere
2mo
0
23
Forecasting Newsletter: May 2021
NunoSempere
1y
2
22
Forecasting Newsletter: March 2021
NunoSempere
1y
0