Go Back
Choose this branch
You can't go any further
meritocratic
regular
democratic
hot
top
alive
78 posts
Forecasting
Forecasting Newsletter
24 posts
140
Samotsvety Nuclear Risk Forecasts — March 2022
NunoSempere
9mo
55
131
How accurate are Open Phil's predictions?
Javier Prieto
6mo
18
125
Introducing Metaforecast: A Forecast Aggregator and Search Tool
NunoSempere
1y
17
123
Rational predictions often update predictably*
Gregory Lewis
7mo
14
90
When pooling forecasts, use the geometric mean of odds
Jaime Sevilla
1y
59
87
Formalising the "Washing Out Hypothesis"
dwebb
1y
24
85
Impactful Forecasting Prize for forecast writeups on curated Metaculus questions
elifland
10mo
13
80
Use resilience, instead of imprecision, to communicate uncertainty
Gregory Lewis
2y
34
74
Creating a database for base rates
nikos
8d
7
70
Evidence on good forecasting practices from the Good Judgment Project: an accompanying blog post
kokotajlod
3y
14
68
Pablo Stafforini’s Forecasting System
jungofthewon
2y
9
64
Some learnings I had from forecasting in 2020
Linch
2y
8
55
Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize
Ozzie Gooen
2y
7
54
Affective forecasting: The challenge of predicting future feelings and the implications for global priorities research
Matt Coleman
10mo
2
37
Forecasting Newsletter: June 2022
NunoSempere
5mo
4
33
Forecasting Newsletter: April 2022
NunoSempere
7mo
2
30
Forecasting Newsletter: July 2020.
NunoSempere
2y
1
29
2020: Forecasting in Review
NunoSempere
1y
7
29
Forecasting Newsletter: November 2020.
NunoSempere
2y
0
26
Forecasting Newsletter: July 2022
NunoSempere
4mo
0
26
Forecasting Newsletter: December 2021
NunoSempere
11mo
0
23
Forecasting Newsletter: May 2022
NunoSempere
6mo
5
22
Forecasting Newsletter: August 2020.
NunoSempere
2y
2
22
Forecasting Newsletter: May 2021
NunoSempere
1y
2
22
Forecasting Newsletter: June 2021
NunoSempere
1y
0
19
Forecasting Newsletter: March 2021
NunoSempere
1y
0
19
Forecasting Newsletter: August 2021
NunoSempere
1y
2
18
Forecasting Newsletter: March 2022
NunoSempere
8mo
3