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102 posts
Forecasting
Forecasting Newsletter
25 posts
Long-range forecasting
Metaculus
156
How accurate are Open Phil's predictions?
Javier Prieto
6mo
18
155
Samotsvety Nuclear Risk Forecasts — March 2022
NunoSempere
9mo
55
137
Rational predictions often update predictably*
Gregory Lewis
7mo
14
132
Introducing Metaforecast: A Forecast Aggregator and Search Tool
NunoSempere
1y
17
97
When pooling forecasts, use the geometric mean of odds
Jaime Sevilla
1y
59
96
Use resilience, instead of imprecision, to communicate uncertainty
Gregory Lewis
2y
34
95
Formalising the "Washing Out Hypothesis"
dwebb
1y
24
91
Impactful Forecasting Prize for forecast writeups on curated Metaculus questions
elifland
10mo
13
87
Some learnings I had from forecasting in 2020
Linch
2y
8
79
Evidence on good forecasting practices from the Good Judgment Project: an accompanying blog post
kokotajlod
3y
14
74
Tracking the money flows in forecasting
NunoSempere
1mo
4
73
Pablo Stafforini’s Forecasting System
jungofthewon
2y
9
70
Creating a database for base rates
nikos
8d
7
64
Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize
Ozzie Gooen
2y
7
113
Data on forecasting accuracy across different time horizons and levels of forecaster experience
Charles Dillon
1y
6
69
An examination of Metaculus' resolved AI predictions and their implications for AI timelines
Charles Dillon
1y
0
63
[Linkpost] Dan Luu: Futurist prediction methods and accuracy
Linch
3mo
7
58
Getting GPT-3 to predict Metaculus questions
MathiasKB
7mo
6
50
An analysis of Metaculus predictions of future EA resources, 2025 and 2030
Charles Dillon
1y
2
47
How does forecast quantity impact forecast quality on Metaculus?
Charles Dillon
1y
12
47
Superforecasting Long-Term Risks and Climate Change
LuisEUrtubey
4mo
0
46
Bottlenecks to more impactful crowd forecasting
elifland
11mo
2
46
An estimate of the value of Metaculus questions
NunoSempere
1y
19
42
[Link] "How feasible is long-range forecasting?" (Open Phil)
Milan_Griffes
3y
7
40
Impactful Forecasting Prize Results and Reflections
elifland
8mo
10
40
6 Year Decrease of Metaculus AGI Prediction
Chris Leong
8mo
6
38
What important questions are missing from Metaculus?
Charles Dillon
1y
12
37
Superforecasting in a nutshell
lukeprog
1y
2