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102 posts
Forecasting
Forecasting Newsletter
25 posts
Long-range forecasting
Metaculus
70
Creating a database for base rates
nikos
8d
7
23
The biggest red flag about SBF
trevor1
26d
11
35
My current best guess on how to aggregate forecasts
Jaime Sevilla
1y
11
74
Tracking the money flows in forecasting
NunoSempere
1mo
4
45
Epistemics-Improving Activities for Groups and Friends
ChanaMessinger
2mo
7
49
[Cause Exploration Prizes] Training experts to be forecasters
Sam Abbott
3mo
9
36
Updating on the passage of time and conditional prediction curves
Jonas Moss
4mo
6
14
Is there a good web app for doing the "equivalent bet test" from "How To Measure Anything"?
nonzerosum
1mo
1
49
Forecasting Newsletter: June 2022
NunoSempere
5mo
4
52
Participate in the Hybrid Forecasting-Persuasion Tournament (on X-risk topics)
Jhrosenberg
7mo
4
155
Samotsvety Nuclear Risk Forecasts — March 2022
NunoSempere
9mo
55
29
Forecasting Newsletter: August 2022.
NunoSempere
3mo
2
2
Prefer unweighted beliefs to guessed probabilities
Noah Scales
3mo
1
6
Does any EA org try do a wholistic prediction of global trends 20 years out?
5mo
1
15
Mogensen & MacAskill, 'The paralysis argument'
Pablo
1y
2
63
[Linkpost] Dan Luu: Futurist prediction methods and accuracy
Linch
3mo
7
113
Data on forecasting accuracy across different time horizons and levels of forecaster experience
Charles Dillon
1y
6
16
Metaculus seeking Analytical Storytellers to write essays fortified with testable predictions
christian
1y
4
50
An analysis of Metaculus predictions of future EA resources, 2025 and 2030
Charles Dillon
1y
2
58
Getting GPT-3 to predict Metaculus questions
MathiasKB
7mo
6
16
Probability of extinction for various types of catastrophes
Vasco Grilo
2mo
0
11
The collaborative exploration of alternative futures - a free to use online tool
rickjdavies
3mo
0
13
Metaculus is seeking experienced leaders, researchers & operators for high-impact roles
christian
5mo
0
37
Superforecasting in a nutshell
lukeprog
1y
2
23
David Rhys Bernard: Estimating long-term effects without long-term data
EA Global
2y
0
25
Prediction Bank: A way around current prediction market regulations?
Gaurav Sett
10mo
12
46
Bottlenecks to more impactful crowd forecasting
elifland
11mo
2
33
Announcing the Bentham Prize
Pablo
2y
1