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meritocratic
regular
democratic
hot
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alive
78 posts
Forecasting
Forecasting Newsletter
24 posts
66
Creating a database for base rates
nikos
8d
7
36
The biggest red flag about SBF
trevor1
26d
11
36
My current best guess on how to aggregate forecasts
Jaime Sevilla
1y
11
99
Tracking the money flows in forecasting
NunoSempere
1mo
4
53
Epistemics-Improving Activities for Groups and Friends
ChanaMessinger
2mo
7
53
[Cause Exploration Prizes] Training experts to be forecasters
Sam Abbott
3mo
9
39
Updating on the passage of time and conditional prediction curves
Jonas Moss
4mo
6
15
Is there a good web app for doing the "equivalent bet test" from "How To Measure Anything"?
nonzerosum
1mo
1
53
Participate in the Hybrid Forecasting-Persuasion Tournament (on X-risk topics)
Jhrosenberg
7mo
4
170
Samotsvety Nuclear Risk Forecasts — March 2022
NunoSempere
9mo
55
41
Forecasting Newsletter: August 2022.
NunoSempere
3mo
2
3
Prefer unweighted beliefs to guessed probabilities
Noah Scales
3mo
1
6
Does any EA org try do a wholistic prediction of global trends 20 years out?
5mo
1
17
One’s Future Behavior as a Domain of Calibration
markus_over
1y
8
61
Forecasting Newsletter: June 2022
NunoSempere
5mo
4
39
Forecasting Newsletter: May 2022
NunoSempere
6mo
5
25
Forecasting Newsletter: March 2021
NunoSempere
1y
0
22
Forecasting Newsletter: August 2020.
NunoSempere
2y
2
41
2020: Forecasting in Review
NunoSempere
1y
7
29
Forecasting Newsletter: August 2021
NunoSempere
1y
2
37
Forecasting Newsletter: November 2020.
NunoSempere
2y
0
20
Forecasting Newsletter: October 2021.
NunoSempere
1y
0
25
Forecasting Newsletter: September 2021.
NunoSempere
1y
0
24
Forecasting Newsletter: February 2021
NunoSempere
1y
0
34
Forecasting Newsletter: July 2022
NunoSempere
4mo
0
32
Forecasting Newsletter: November 2021
NunoSempere
1y
2
32
Forecasting Newsletter: July 2020.
NunoSempere
2y
1
33
Forecasting Newsletter: September 2022.
NunoSempere
2mo
0