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456 posts
Cause prioritization
Longtermism
Long-term future
Global priorities research
Criticism of effective altruist causes
Global Priorities Institute
ITN framework
Criticism of longtermism and existential risk studies
AI skepticism
Flourishing futures
Speeding up development
Trajectory change
404 posts
Forecasting
Rationality
Research summary
Epistemic deference
Cluelessness
Metaculus
Newsletters
Epistemology
Forecasting Newsletter
Statistics
Prediction markets
Research
561
"Long-Termism" vs. "Existential Risk"
Scott Alexander
8mo
83
279
Messy personal stuff that affected my cause prioritization (or: how I started to care about AI safety)
Julia_Wise
7mo
14
238
Counterarguments to the basic AI risk case
Katja_Grace
2mo
22
229
Longtermist EA needs more Phase 2 work
Owen Cotton-Barratt
8mo
36
228
Response to Recent Criticisms of Longtermism
ab
1y
32
194
Some personal thoughts on EA and systemic change
CarlShulman
3y
17
190
Why I am probably not a longtermist
Denise_Melchin
1y
48
183
The Future Might Not Be So Great
Jacy
5mo
118
162
Existential risk pessimism and the time of perils
David Thorstad
4mo
51
149
'Longtermism'
William_MacAskill
3y
58
140
A cause can be too neglected
saulius
2y
18
137
The Bioethicists are (Mostly) Alright
Devin Kalish
11mo
61
134
Response to Torres’ ‘The Case Against Longtermism’
HaydnBelfield
1y
77
129
2-week summer course in "economic theory and global prioritization": LMK if interested!
trammell
1y
17
310
Introducing Asterisk
Clara Collier
6mo
33
244
List of ways in which cost-effectiveness estimates can be misleading
saulius
3y
30
243
Announcing the first issue of Asterisk
Clara Collier
29d
47
218
Reality is often underpowered
Gregory Lewis
3y
17
177
Flimsy Pet Theories, Enormous Initiatives
Ozzie Gooen
1y
57
173
Comparing top forecasters and domain experts
Gavin
9mo
39
166
Beware surprising and suspicious convergence
Gregory Lewis
6y
22
162
Global health is important for the epistemic foundations of EA, even for longtermists
Owen Cotton-Barratt
6mo
16
162
EA should blurt
RobBensinger
28d
26
146
Deference Culture in EA
Joey
6mo
23
140
Samotsvety Nuclear Risk Forecasts — March 2022
NunoSempere
9mo
55
134
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (21 Aug - 27 Aug 22’)
Zoe Williams
3mo
14
132
Some thoughts on deference and inside-view models
Buck
2y
31
131
How accurate are Open Phil's predictions?
Javier Prieto
6mo
18