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456 posts
Cause prioritization
Longtermism
Long-term future
Global priorities research
Criticism of effective altruist causes
Global Priorities Institute
ITN framework
Criticism of longtermism and existential risk studies
AI skepticism
Flourishing futures
Speeding up development
Trajectory change
404 posts
Forecasting
Rationality
Research summary
Epistemic deference
Cluelessness
Metaculus
Newsletters
Epistemology
Forecasting Newsletter
Statistics
Prediction markets
Research
481
"Long-Termism" vs. "Existential Risk"
Scott Alexander
8mo
83
264
Counterarguments to the basic AI risk case
Katja_Grace
2mo
22
262
Messy personal stuff that affected my cause prioritization (or: how I started to care about AI safety)
Julia_Wise
7mo
14
243
Response to Recent Criticisms of Longtermism
ab
1y
32
234
Longtermist EA needs more Phase 2 work
Owen Cotton-Barratt
8mo
36
198
Some personal thoughts on EA and systemic change
CarlShulman
3y
17
186
Why I am probably not a longtermist
Denise_Melchin
1y
48
157
Existential risk pessimism and the time of perils
David Thorstad
4mo
51
148
The Bioethicists are (Mostly) Alright
Devin Kalish
11mo
61
142
A cause can be too neglected
saulius
2y
18
134
There's Lots More To Do
Jeff Kaufman
3y
30
130
Response to Torres’ ‘The Case Against Longtermism’
HaydnBelfield
1y
77
129
The Future Might Not Be So Great
Jacy
5mo
118
127
The ITN framework, cost-effectiveness, and cause prioritisation
John G. Halstead
3y
20
286
Introducing Asterisk
Clara Collier
6mo
33
275
Announcing the first issue of Asterisk
Clara Collier
29d
47
209
Reality is often underpowered
Gregory Lewis
3y
17
208
Flimsy Pet Theories, Enormous Initiatives
Ozzie Gooen
1y
57
204
List of ways in which cost-effectiveness estimates can be misleading
saulius
3y
30
180
Comparing top forecasters and domain experts
Gavin
9mo
39
167
Beware surprising and suspicious convergence
Gregory Lewis
6y
22
160
Global health is important for the epistemic foundations of EA, even for longtermists
Owen Cotton-Barratt
6mo
16
156
How accurate are Open Phil's predictions?
Javier Prieto
6mo
18
155
Samotsvety Nuclear Risk Forecasts — March 2022
NunoSempere
9mo
55
154
EA should blurt
RobBensinger
28d
26
144
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (21 Aug - 27 Aug 22’)
Zoe Williams
3mo
14
141
Clarifications on diminishing returns and risk aversion in giving
Robert_Wiblin
25d
25
140
Deference Culture in EA
Joey
6mo
23