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199 posts
Rationality
Epistemic deference
Cluelessness
Epistemology
Statistics
Cognitive bias
Fermi estimate
Risk aversion
Model uncertainty
Indirect long-term effects
Disentanglement research
Philanthropic diversification
205 posts
Forecasting
Research summary
Metaculus
Newsletters
Long-range forecasting
Forecasting Newsletter
Research
Prediction markets
Weekly Summaries (project)
Arb
Future Matters
Manifold Markets
239
Flimsy Pet Theories, Enormous Initiatives
Ozzie Gooen
1y
57
200
Reality is often underpowered
Gregory Lewis
3y
17
170
Clarifications on diminishing returns and risk aversion in giving
Robert_Wiblin
25d
25
168
Beware surprising and suspicious convergence
Gregory Lewis
6y
22
164
List of ways in which cost-effectiveness estimates can be misleading
saulius
3y
30
158
Global health is important for the epistemic foundations of EA, even for longtermists
Owen Cotton-Barratt
6mo
16
146
EA should blurt
RobBensinger
28d
26
142
Invisible impact loss (and why we can be too error-averse)
Lizka
2mo
14
139
Independent impressions
MichaelA
1y
7
134
Some thoughts on deference and inside-view models
Buck
2y
31
134
Deference Culture in EA
Joey
6mo
23
128
When reporting AI timelines, be clear who you're (not) deferring to
Sam Clarke
2mo
20
125
A practical guide to long-term planning – and suggestions for longtermism
weeatquince
1y
12
118
Deferring
Owen Cotton-Barratt
7mo
40
307
Announcing the first issue of Asterisk
Clara Collier
29d
47
262
Introducing Asterisk
Clara Collier
6mo
33
187
Comparing top forecasters and domain experts
Gavin
9mo
39
181
How accurate are Open Phil's predictions?
Javier Prieto
6mo
18
170
Samotsvety Nuclear Risk Forecasts — March 2022
NunoSempere
9mo
55
154
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (21 Aug - 27 Aug 22’)
Zoe Williams
3mo
14
151
Rational predictions often update predictably*
Gregory Lewis
7mo
14
139
Introducing Metaforecast: A Forecast Aggregator and Search Tool
NunoSempere
1y
17
136
Does putting kids in school now put money in their pockets later? Revisiting a natural experiment in Indonesia
David Roodman
25d
24
130
Data on forecasting accuracy across different time horizons and levels of forecaster experience
Charles Dillon
1y
6
126
Features that make a report especially helpful to me
lukeprog
8mo
1
112
Use resilience, instead of imprecision, to communicate uncertainty
Gregory Lewis
2y
34
110
Some learnings I had from forecasting in 2020
Linch
2y
8
106
Finding before funding: Why EA should probably invest more in research
Falk Lieder
4mo
11