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alive
25 posts
Statistics
Optimizer's curse
23 posts
Epistemology
Bayesian epistemology
Bayes' Theorem
200
Reality is often underpowered
Gregory Lewis
3y
17
164
List of ways in which cost-effectiveness estimates can be misleading
saulius
3y
30
84
Probability distributions of Cost-Effectiveness can be misleading
Lorenzo Buonanno
5mo
52
81
[Link] The Optimizer's Curse & Wrong-Way Reductions
Chris Smith
3y
61
63
Don't Over-Optimize Things
Owen Cotton-Barratt
6mo
7
50
Take care with notation for uncertain quantities
Gregory Lewis
2y
2
42
Estimating value from pairwise comparisons
Jonas Moss
2mo
3
41
A peek at pairwise preference estimation in economics, marketing, and statistics
Jonas Moss
2mo
5
36
Five Ways to Handle Flow-Through Effects
Peter Wildeford
6y
3
34
[Stats4EA] Expectations are not Outcomes
matthewp
2y
5
29
[Stats4EA] Uncertain Probabilities
matthewp
2y
7
26
Turning percentages back into people: personalizing quantification
sky
2y
0
24
The Multi-Class Optimizer's Curse
FeelingSentient
1y
0
23
How accurately does anyone know the global distribution of income?
Robert_Wiblin
5y
30
239
Flimsy Pet Theories, Enormous Initiatives
Ozzie Gooen
1y
57
158
Global health is important for the epistemic foundations of EA, even for longtermists
Owen Cotton-Barratt
6mo
16
107
Limits to Legibility
Jan_Kulveit
5mo
3
105
Deference for Bayesians
John G. Halstead
1y
30
97
Disagreeables and Assessors: Two Intellectual Archetypes
Ozzie Gooen
1y
20
72
Bayesian Mindset
Holden Karnofsky
12mo
19
45
Tyranny of the Epistemic Majority
Scott Garrabrant
28d
2
32
How modest should you be?
John G. Halstead
1y
10
29
The Geometric Expectation
Scott Garrabrant
27d
0
27
Where can I find good criticisms of EA made by non-EAs?
oh54321
6mo
5
26
Epistemic Trade: A quick proof sketch with one example
Linch
1y
2
23
A thinking tool for whether X causes Y
Ben Stewart
8mo
0
20
Red teaming a model for estimating the value of longtermist interventions - A critique of Tarsney's "The Epistemic Challenge to Longtermism"
Anjay F
5mo
0
19
Anecdotes Can Be Strong Evidence and Bayes Theorem Proves It
FCCC
9mo
5