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85 posts
Forecasting & Prediction
9 posts
Technological Forecasting
512
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
143
Assessing Kurzweil predictions about 2019: the results
Stuart_Armstrong
2y
21
90
The Track Record of Futurists Seems ... Fine
HoldenKarnofsky
5mo
23
40
Dan Luu on Futurist Predictions
RobertM
3mo
9
39
Some research ideas in forecasting
Jsevillamol
1mo
2
6
In forecasting, how do accuracy, calibration and reliability relate to each other?
amarai
3mo
4
18
$13,000 of prizes for changing our mind about who to fund (Clearer Thinking Regrants Forecasting Tournament)
spencerg
3mo
3
79
A time-invariant version of Laplace's rule
Jsevillamol
5mo
5
22
PredictIt is closing due to CFTC changing its mind
eigen
4mo
4
54
On Overconfidence
Scott Alexander
7y
5
27
My Hypermind Arising Intelligence Forecasts and Reflections
elifland
1y
3
26
Is there a convenient way to make "sealed" predictions?
Daniel Kokotajlo
7mo
20
14
Building an Epistemic Status Tracker
rcu
6mo
6
23
Information Charts
Rafael Harth
2y
6
-2
There’s One Thing Futurists are Never Wrong About
Alex Beyman
2mo
45
10
What "The Message" Was For Me
Alex Beyman
2mo
14
432
Beware boasting about non-existent forecasting track records
Jotto999
7mo
110
13
Futurism's Track Record
lukeprog
8y
17
62
A prior for technological discontinuities
NunoSempere
2y
17
5
General-purpose forecasting and the associated community
VipulNaik
8y
0
5
Futures studies: the field and the associated community
VipulNaik
8y
2
24
Long-Term Technological Forecasting
lukeprog
10y
3
28
How to write good AI forecasting questions + Question Database (Forecasting infrastructure, part 3)
jacobjacob
3y
3