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94 posts
Forecasting & Prediction
Technological Forecasting
51 posts
Newsletters
512
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
-2
There’s One Thing Futurists are Never Wrong About
Alex Beyman
2mo
45
143
Assessing Kurzweil predictions about 2019: the results
Stuart_Armstrong
2y
21
10
What "The Message" Was For Me
Alex Beyman
2mo
14
90
The Track Record of Futurists Seems ... Fine
HoldenKarnofsky
5mo
23
40
Dan Luu on Futurist Predictions
RobertM
3mo
9
432
Beware boasting about non-existent forecasting track records
Jotto999
7mo
110
39
Some research ideas in forecasting
Jsevillamol
1mo
2
6
In forecasting, how do accuracy, calibration and reliability relate to each other?
amarai
3mo
4
18
$13,000 of prizes for changing our mind about who to fund (Clearer Thinking Regrants Forecasting Tournament)
spencerg
3mo
3
79
A time-invariant version of Laplace's rule
Jsevillamol
5mo
5
22
PredictIt is closing due to CFTC changing its mind
eigen
4mo
4
54
On Overconfidence
Scott Alexander
7y
5
27
My Hypermind Arising Intelligence Forecasts and Reflections
elifland
1y
3
19
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (10 - 16 Oct 22')
Zoe Williams
2mo
4
19
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (14th Nov - 27th Nov 22')
Zoe Williams
21d
1
11
What AI newsletters or substacks about AI do you recommend?
wunan
25d
1
91
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (21 Aug - 27 Aug 22')
Zoe Williams
3mo
4
76
QAPR 4: Inductive biases
Quintin Pope
2mo
2
20
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (31st Oct - 6th Nov 22')
Zoe Williams
1mo
1
19
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (24 - 30th Oct 22')
Zoe Williams
1mo
1
37
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (5 - 11 Sep 22')
Zoe Williams
3mo
0
10
Dec 2019 gwern.net newsletter
gwern
2y
2
26
June gwern.net newsletter
gwern
4y
0
12
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (17 - 23 Oct 22')
Zoe Williams
1mo
0
27
Recent updates to gwern.net (2013-2014)
gwern
8y
32
11
January 2020 gwern.net newsletter
gwern
2y
0
12
March 2019 gwern.net newsletter
gwern
3y
9