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64 posts
Distinctions
Gears-Level
Inside/Outside View
Law and Legal systems
Rationalist Taboo
Risk Management
References (Language)
145 posts
Forecasting & Prediction
Newsletters
Technological Forecasting
333
Taboo "Outside View"
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
26
36
Why So Many Cookie Banners?
jefftk
2mo
28
292
“PR” is corrosive; “reputation” is not.
AnnaSalamon
1y
92
24
Concrete Advice for Forming Inside Views on AI Safety
Neel Nanda
4mo
6
1
"Giftedness" and Genius, Crucial Differences
ArthurLidia
3y
0
15
The map has gears. They don't always turn.
abramdemski
4y
0
12
Choosing the right ask for a context
ChristianKl
1y
6
20
Work harder on tabooing "Friendly AI"
ChrisHallquist
10y
52
23
In favor of tabooing the word “values” and using only “priorities” instead
chaosmage
4y
11
10
Outside View as the Main Debiasing Technique
abramdemski
5y
4
135
Disputing Definitions
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
46
6
Is Legal Reasoning Fundamentally Irrational?
ThomasMore
1y
4
28
Taboo "rationality," please.
MBlume
13y
54
22
When Gears Go Wrong
Matt Goldenberg
2y
6
512
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
-2
There’s One Thing Futurists are Never Wrong About
Alex Beyman
2mo
45
143
Assessing Kurzweil predictions about 2019: the results
Stuart_Armstrong
2y
21
10
What "The Message" Was For Me
Alex Beyman
2mo
14
90
The Track Record of Futurists Seems ... Fine
HoldenKarnofsky
5mo
23
40
Dan Luu on Futurist Predictions
RobertM
3mo
9
432
Beware boasting about non-existent forecasting track records
Jotto999
7mo
110
19
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (10 - 16 Oct 22')
Zoe Williams
2mo
4
39
Some research ideas in forecasting
Jsevillamol
1mo
2
19
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (14th Nov - 27th Nov 22')
Zoe Williams
21d
1
11
What AI newsletters or substacks about AI do you recommend?
wunan
25d
1
6
In forecasting, how do accuracy, calibration and reliability relate to each other?
amarai
3mo
4
91
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (21 Aug - 27 Aug 22')
Zoe Williams
3mo
4
18
$13,000 of prizes for changing our mind about who to fund (Clearer Thinking Regrants Forecasting Tournament)
spencerg
3mo
3