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64 posts
Distinctions
Gears-Level
Inside/Outside View
Law and Legal systems
Rationalist Taboo
Risk Management
References (Language)
145 posts
Forecasting & Prediction
Newsletters
Technological Forecasting
315
Taboo "Outside View"
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
26
35
Why So Many Cookie Banners?
jefftk
2mo
28
280
“PR” is corrosive; “reputation” is not.
AnnaSalamon
1y
92
18
Concrete Advice for Forming Inside Views on AI Safety
Neel Nanda
4mo
6
3
"Giftedness" and Genius, Crucial Differences
ArthurLidia
3y
0
21
The map has gears. They don't always turn.
abramdemski
4y
0
14
Choosing the right ask for a context
ChristianKl
1y
6
27
Work harder on tabooing "Friendly AI"
ChrisHallquist
10y
52
21
In favor of tabooing the word “values” and using only “priorities” instead
chaosmage
4y
11
8
Outside View as the Main Debiasing Technique
abramdemski
5y
4
104
Disputing Definitions
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
46
3
Is Legal Reasoning Fundamentally Irrational?
ThomasMore
1y
4
26
Taboo "rationality," please.
MBlume
13y
54
28
When Gears Go Wrong
Matt Goldenberg
2y
6
369
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
-4
There’s One Thing Futurists are Never Wrong About
Alex Beyman
2mo
45
143
Assessing Kurzweil predictions about 2019: the results
Stuart_Armstrong
2y
21
-3
What "The Message" Was For Me
Alex Beyman
2mo
14
91
The Track Record of Futurists Seems ... Fine
HoldenKarnofsky
5mo
23
50
Dan Luu on Futurist Predictions
RobertM
3mo
9
259
Beware boasting about non-existent forecasting track records
Jotto999
7mo
110
12
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (10 - 16 Oct 22')
Zoe Williams
2mo
4
35
Some research ideas in forecasting
Jsevillamol
1mo
2
21
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (14th Nov - 27th Nov 22')
Zoe Williams
21d
1
6
What AI newsletters or substacks about AI do you recommend?
wunan
25d
1
3
In forecasting, how do accuracy, calibration and reliability relate to each other?
amarai
3mo
4
57
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (21 Aug - 27 Aug 22')
Zoe Williams
3mo
4
12
$13,000 of prizes for changing our mind about who to fund (Clearer Thinking Regrants Forecasting Tournament)
spencerg
3mo
3