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alive
64 posts
Distinctions
Gears-Level
Inside/Outside View
Law and Legal systems
Rationalist Taboo
Risk Management
References (Language)
145 posts
Forecasting & Prediction
Newsletters
Technological Forecasting
35
Why So Many Cookie Banners?
jefftk
2mo
28
315
Taboo "Outside View"
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
26
195
Almost everyone should be less afraid of lawsuits
alyssavance
1y
16
280
“PR” is corrosive; “reputation” is not.
AnnaSalamon
1y
92
18
Concrete Advice for Forming Inside Views on AI Safety
Neel Nanda
4mo
6
143
Gears-Level Models are Capital Investments
johnswentworth
3y
30
79
Homeostasis and “Root Causes” in Aging
johnswentworth
2y
25
73
Adaptive Immune System Aging
johnswentworth
2y
9
75
Material Goods as an Abundant Resource
johnswentworth
2y
9
159
Gears in understanding
Valentine
5y
38
84
Gears vs Behavior
johnswentworth
3y
12
70
The Lens, Progerias and Polycausality
johnswentworth
2y
8
77
Wrinkles
johnswentworth
3y
15
55
Multitudinous outside views
Davidmanheim
2y
13
3
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (12th Dec - 18th Dec 22')
Zoe Williams
14h
0
32
Will Manifold Markets/Metaculus have built-in support for reflective latent variables by 2025?
tailcalled
10d
0
7
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (5th Dec - 11th Dec 22')
Zoe Williams
7d
0
21
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (14th Nov - 27th Nov 22')
Zoe Williams
21d
1
35
Some research ideas in forecasting
Jsevillamol
1mo
2
259
Beware boasting about non-existent forecasting track records
Jotto999
7mo
110
63
QAPR 4: Inductive biases
Quintin Pope
2mo
2
19
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (7th Nov - 13th Nov 22')
Zoe Williams
1mo
0
369
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
50
Dan Luu on Futurist Predictions
RobertM
3mo
9
57
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (21 Aug - 27 Aug 22')
Zoe Williams
3mo
4
91
The Track Record of Futurists Seems ... Fine
HoldenKarnofsky
5mo
23
26
[MLSN #6]: Transparency survey, provable robustness, ML models that predict the future
Dan H
2mo
0
63
A time-invariant version of Laplace's rule
Jsevillamol
5mo
5