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94 posts
Forecasting & Prediction
Technological Forecasting
51 posts
Newsletters
32
Will Manifold Markets/Metaculus have built-in support for reflective latent variables by 2025?
tailcalled
10d
0
35
Some research ideas in forecasting
Jsevillamol
1mo
2
259
Beware boasting about non-existent forecasting track records
Jotto999
7mo
110
369
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
50
Dan Luu on Futurist Predictions
RobertM
3mo
9
91
The Track Record of Futurists Seems ... Fine
HoldenKarnofsky
5mo
23
63
A time-invariant version of Laplace's rule
Jsevillamol
5mo
5
15
Metaculus Launches the 'Forecasting Our World In Data' Project to Probe the Long-Term Future
ChristianWilliams
2mo
0
243
Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong
Amandango
2y
91
73
Is Metaculus Slow to Update?
SimonM
9mo
11
48
Range and Forecasting Accuracy
niplav
6mo
19
57
Forecasting Newsletter: Looking back at 2021
NunoSempere
10mo
6
20
PredictIt is closing due to CFTC changing its mind
eigen
4mo
4
12
$13,000 of prizes for changing our mind about who to fund (Clearer Thinking Regrants Forecasting Tournament)
spencerg
3mo
3
3
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (12th Dec - 18th Dec 22')
Zoe Williams
14h
0
7
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (5th Dec - 11th Dec 22')
Zoe Williams
7d
0
21
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (14th Nov - 27th Nov 22')
Zoe Williams
21d
1
63
QAPR 4: Inductive biases
Quintin Pope
2mo
2
19
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (7th Nov - 13th Nov 22')
Zoe Williams
1mo
0
57
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (21 Aug - 27 Aug 22')
Zoe Williams
3mo
4
26
[MLSN #6]: Transparency survey, provable robustness, ML models that predict the future
Dan H
2mo
0
12
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (31st Oct - 6th Nov 22')
Zoe Williams
1mo
1
6
What AI newsletters or substacks about AI do you recommend?
wunan
25d
1
13
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (24 - 30th Oct 22')
Zoe Williams
1mo
1
24
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (5 - 11 Sep 22')
Zoe Williams
3mo
0
12
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (10 - 16 Oct 22')
Zoe Williams
2mo
4
10
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (17 - 23 Oct 22')
Zoe Williams
1mo
0
2
NeurIPS Safety & ChatGPT. MLAISU W48
Esben Kran
18d
0