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94 posts
Forecasting & Prediction
Technological Forecasting
51 posts
Newsletters
369
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
259
Beware boasting about non-existent forecasting track records
Jotto999
7mo
110
243
Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong
Amandango
2y
91
162
16 types of useful predictions
Julia_Galef
7y
55
143
Assessing Kurzweil predictions about 2019: the results
Stuart_Armstrong
2y
21
122
How to evaluate (50%) predictions
Rafael Harth
2y
50
120
Real-Life Examples of Prediction Systems Interfering with the Real World (Predict-O-Matic Problems)
NunoSempere
2y
29
110
AGI Predictions
Amandango
2y
36
99
S-Curves for Trend Forecasting
Matt Goldenberg
3y
22
92
Statistical Prediction Rules Out-Perform Expert Human Judgments
lukeprog
11y
199
91
The Track Record of Futurists Seems ... Fine
HoldenKarnofsky
5mo
23
73
Is Metaculus Slow to Update?
SimonM
9mo
11
70
A prior for technological discontinuities
NunoSempere
2y
17
63
A time-invariant version of Laplace's rule
Jsevillamol
5mo
5
63
QAPR 4: Inductive biases
Quintin Pope
2mo
2
57
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (21 Aug - 27 Aug 22')
Zoe Williams
3mo
4
52
[AN #166]: Is it crazy to claim we're in the most important century?
Rohin Shah
1y
5
45
Recent updates to gwern.net (2011)
gwern
11y
18
42
Recent updates to gwern.net (2015-2016)
gwern
6y
6
38
Recent updates to gwern.net (2013-2014)
gwern
8y
32
35
November 2018 gwern.net newsletter
gwern
4y
0
35
Announcing LessWrong Digest
Evan_Gaensbauer
7y
18
34
June gwern.net newsletter
gwern
4y
0
34
Recent updates to gwern.net (2014-2015)
gwern
7y
3
33
Forecasting Newsletter: February 2022
NunoSempere
9mo
0
29
Bi-weekly Rational Feed
sapphire
5y
4
29
June 2019 gwern.net newsletter
gwern
3y
0
27
Forecasting Newsletter. June 2020.
NunoSempere
2y
0