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85 posts
Forecasting & Prediction
9 posts
Technological Forecasting
369
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
243
Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong
Amandango
2y
91
162
16 types of useful predictions
Julia_Galef
7y
55
143
Assessing Kurzweil predictions about 2019: the results
Stuart_Armstrong
2y
21
122
How to evaluate (50%) predictions
Rafael Harth
2y
50
120
Real-Life Examples of Prediction Systems Interfering with the Real World (Predict-O-Matic Problems)
NunoSempere
2y
29
110
AGI Predictions
Amandango
2y
36
99
S-Curves for Trend Forecasting
Matt Goldenberg
3y
22
92
Statistical Prediction Rules Out-Perform Expert Human Judgments
lukeprog
11y
199
91
The Track Record of Futurists Seems ... Fine
HoldenKarnofsky
5mo
23
73
Is Metaculus Slow to Update?
SimonM
9mo
11
63
A time-invariant version of Laplace's rule
Jsevillamol
5mo
5
57
Forecasting Newsletter: Looking back at 2021
NunoSempere
10mo
6
55
[Part 1] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – Models of impact and challenges
jacobjacob
3y
29
259
Beware boasting about non-existent forecasting track records
Jotto999
7mo
110
70
A prior for technological discontinuities
NunoSempere
2y
17
35
Long-Term Technological Forecasting
lukeprog
10y
3
29
How to write good AI forecasting questions + Question Database (Forecasting infrastructure, part 3)
jacobjacob
3y
3
18
Futurism's Track Record
lukeprog
8y
17
6
General-purpose forecasting and the associated community
VipulNaik
8y
0
6
Futures studies: the field and the associated community
VipulNaik
8y
2
-3
What "The Message" Was For Me
Alex Beyman
2mo
14
-4
There’s One Thing Futurists are Never Wrong About
Alex Beyman
2mo
45