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meritocratic
regular
democratic
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alive
85 posts
Forecasting & Prediction
9 posts
Technological Forecasting
32
Will Manifold Markets/Metaculus have built-in support for reflective latent variables by 2025?
tailcalled
10d
0
35
Some research ideas in forecasting
Jsevillamol
1mo
2
369
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
50
Dan Luu on Futurist Predictions
RobertM
3mo
9
91
The Track Record of Futurists Seems ... Fine
HoldenKarnofsky
5mo
23
63
A time-invariant version of Laplace's rule
Jsevillamol
5mo
5
15
Metaculus Launches the 'Forecasting Our World In Data' Project to Probe the Long-Term Future
ChristianWilliams
2mo
0
243
Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong
Amandango
2y
91
73
Is Metaculus Slow to Update?
SimonM
9mo
11
48
Range and Forecasting Accuracy
niplav
6mo
19
57
Forecasting Newsletter: Looking back at 2021
NunoSempere
10mo
6
20
PredictIt is closing due to CFTC changing its mind
eigen
4mo
4
12
$13,000 of prizes for changing our mind about who to fund (Clearer Thinking Regrants Forecasting Tournament)
spencerg
3mo
3
32
Is there a convenient way to make "sealed" predictions?
Daniel Kokotajlo
7mo
20
259
Beware boasting about non-existent forecasting track records
Jotto999
7mo
110
70
A prior for technological discontinuities
NunoSempere
2y
17
29
How to write good AI forecasting questions + Question Database (Forecasting infrastructure, part 3)
jacobjacob
3y
3
35
Long-Term Technological Forecasting
lukeprog
10y
3
18
Futurism's Track Record
lukeprog
8y
17
6
Futures studies: the field and the associated community
VipulNaik
8y
2
6
General-purpose forecasting and the associated community
VipulNaik
8y
0
-3
What "The Message" Was For Me
Alex Beyman
2mo
14
-4
There’s One Thing Futurists are Never Wrong About
Alex Beyman
2mo
45