Go Back
You can't go any further
You can't go any further
meritocratic
regular
democratic
hot
top
alive
85 posts
Forecasting & Prediction
9 posts
Technological Forecasting
35
Will Manifold Markets/Metaculus have built-in support for reflective latent variables by 2025?
tailcalled
10d
0
31
Some research ideas in forecasting
Jsevillamol
1mo
2
60
Dan Luu on Futurist Predictions
RobertM
3mo
9
92
The Track Record of Futurists Seems ... Fine
HoldenKarnofsky
5mo
23
226
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
47
A time-invariant version of Laplace's rule
Jsevillamol
5mo
5
15
Metaculus Launches the 'Forecasting Our World In Data' Project to Probe the Long-Term Future
ChristianWilliams
2mo
0
66
Is Metaculus Slow to Update?
SimonM
9mo
11
208
Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong
Amandango
2y
91
38
Is there a convenient way to make "sealed" predictions?
Daniel Kokotajlo
7mo
20
34
Range and Forecasting Accuracy
niplav
6mo
19
50
Forecasting Newsletter: Looking back at 2021
NunoSempere
10mo
6
18
PredictIt is closing due to CFTC changing its mind
eigen
4mo
4
122
Real-Life Examples of Prediction Systems Interfering with the Real World (Predict-O-Matic Problems)
NunoSempere
2y
29
86
Beware boasting about non-existent forecasting track records
Jotto999
7mo
110
78
A prior for technological discontinuities
NunoSempere
2y
17
30
How to write good AI forecasting questions + Question Database (Forecasting infrastructure, part 3)
jacobjacob
3y
3
46
Long-Term Technological Forecasting
lukeprog
10y
3
23
Futurism's Track Record
lukeprog
8y
17
7
Futures studies: the field and the associated community
VipulNaik
8y
2
7
General-purpose forecasting and the associated community
VipulNaik
8y
0
-6
There’s One Thing Futurists are Never Wrong About
Alex Beyman
2mo
45
-16
What "The Message" Was For Me
Alex Beyman
2mo
14