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alive
94 posts
Forecasting & Prediction
Technological Forecasting
51 posts
Newsletters
35
Will Manifold Markets/Metaculus have built-in support for reflective latent variables by 2025?
tailcalled
10d
0
31
Some research ideas in forecasting
Jsevillamol
1mo
2
60
Dan Luu on Futurist Predictions
RobertM
3mo
9
92
The Track Record of Futurists Seems ... Fine
HoldenKarnofsky
5mo
23
86
Beware boasting about non-existent forecasting track records
Jotto999
7mo
110
226
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
47
A time-invariant version of Laplace's rule
Jsevillamol
5mo
5
15
Metaculus Launches the 'Forecasting Our World In Data' Project to Probe the Long-Term Future
ChristianWilliams
2mo
0
66
Is Metaculus Slow to Update?
SimonM
9mo
11
208
Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong
Amandango
2y
91
38
Is there a convenient way to make "sealed" predictions?
Daniel Kokotajlo
7mo
20
34
Range and Forecasting Accuracy
niplav
6mo
19
50
Forecasting Newsletter: Looking back at 2021
NunoSempere
10mo
6
18
PredictIt is closing due to CFTC changing its mind
eigen
4mo
4
1
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (12th Dec - 18th Dec 22')
Zoe Williams
14h
0
23
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (14th Nov - 27th Nov 22')
Zoe Williams
21d
1
50
QAPR 4: Inductive biases
Quintin Pope
2mo
2
15
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (7th Nov - 13th Nov 22')
Zoe Williams
1mo
0
15
[MLSN #6]: Transparency survey, provable robustness, ML models that predict the future
Dan H
2mo
0
23
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (21 Aug - 27 Aug 22')
Zoe Williams
3mo
4
7
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (24 - 30th Oct 22')
Zoe Williams
1mo
1
8
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (17 - 23 Oct 22')
Zoe Williams
1mo
0
62
[AN #166]: Is it crazy to claim we're in the most important century?
Rohin Shah
1y
5
11
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (5 - 11 Sep 22')
Zoe Williams
3mo
0
4
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (31st Oct - 6th Nov 22')
Zoe Williams
1mo
1
32
Forecasting Newsletter: February 2022
NunoSempere
9mo
0
5
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (10 - 16 Oct 22')
Zoe Williams
2mo
4
1
What AI newsletters or substacks about AI do you recommend?
wunan
25d
1