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94 posts
Forecasting & Prediction
Technological Forecasting
51 posts
Newsletters
29
Will Manifold Markets/Metaculus have built-in support for reflective latent variables by 2025?
tailcalled
10d
0
432
Beware boasting about non-existent forecasting track records
Jotto999
7mo
110
39
Some research ideas in forecasting
Jsevillamol
1mo
2
512
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
90
The Track Record of Futurists Seems ... Fine
HoldenKarnofsky
5mo
23
79
A time-invariant version of Laplace's rule
Jsevillamol
5mo
5
40
Dan Luu on Futurist Predictions
RobertM
3mo
9
278
Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong
Amandango
2y
91
62
Range and Forecasting Accuracy
niplav
6mo
19
80
Is Metaculus Slow to Update?
SimonM
9mo
11
15
Metaculus Launches the 'Forecasting Our World In Data' Project to Probe the Long-Term Future
ChristianWilliams
2mo
0
5
Cognitive science and failed AI forecasts
Eleni Angelou
26d
0
18
$13,000 of prizes for changing our mind about who to fund (Clearer Thinking Regrants Forecasting Tournament)
spencerg
3mo
3
64
Forecasting Newsletter: Looking back at 2021
NunoSempere
10mo
6
5
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (12th Dec - 18th Dec 22')
Zoe Williams
14h
0
17
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (5th Dec - 11th Dec 22')
Zoe Williams
7d
0
19
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (14th Nov - 27th Nov 22')
Zoe Williams
21d
1
76
QAPR 4: Inductive biases
Quintin Pope
2mo
2
91
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (21 Aug - 27 Aug 22')
Zoe Williams
3mo
4
23
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (7th Nov - 13th Nov 22')
Zoe Williams
1mo
0
37
[MLSN #6]: Transparency survey, provable robustness, ML models that predict the future
Dan H
2mo
0
11
What AI newsletters or substacks about AI do you recommend?
wunan
25d
1
20
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (31st Oct - 6th Nov 22')
Zoe Williams
1mo
1
19
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (24 - 30th Oct 22')
Zoe Williams
1mo
1
37
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (5 - 11 Sep 22')
Zoe Williams
3mo
0
5
NeurIPS Safety & ChatGPT. MLAISU W48
Esben Kran
18d
0
19
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (10 - 16 Oct 22')
Zoe Williams
2mo
4
12
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (17 - 23 Oct 22')
Zoe Williams
1mo
0