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meritocratic
regular
democratic
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top
alive
85 posts
Forecasting & Prediction
9 posts
Technological Forecasting
29
Will Manifold Markets/Metaculus have built-in support for reflective latent variables by 2025?
tailcalled
10d
0
39
Some research ideas in forecasting
Jsevillamol
1mo
2
512
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
90
The Track Record of Futurists Seems ... Fine
HoldenKarnofsky
5mo
23
79
A time-invariant version of Laplace's rule
Jsevillamol
5mo
5
40
Dan Luu on Futurist Predictions
RobertM
3mo
9
278
Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong
Amandango
2y
91
62
Range and Forecasting Accuracy
niplav
6mo
19
80
Is Metaculus Slow to Update?
SimonM
9mo
11
15
Metaculus Launches the 'Forecasting Our World In Data' Project to Probe the Long-Term Future
ChristianWilliams
2mo
0
5
Cognitive science and failed AI forecasts
Eleni Angelou
26d
0
18
$13,000 of prizes for changing our mind about who to fund (Clearer Thinking Regrants Forecasting Tournament)
spencerg
3mo
3
64
Forecasting Newsletter: Looking back at 2021
NunoSempere
10mo
6
22
PredictIt is closing due to CFTC changing its mind
eigen
4mo
4
432
Beware boasting about non-existent forecasting track records
Jotto999
7mo
110
10
What "The Message" Was For Me
Alex Beyman
2mo
14
62
A prior for technological discontinuities
NunoSempere
2y
17
28
How to write good AI forecasting questions + Question Database (Forecasting infrastructure, part 3)
jacobjacob
3y
3
24
Long-Term Technological Forecasting
lukeprog
10y
3
13
Futurism's Track Record
lukeprog
8y
17
5
Futures studies: the field and the associated community
VipulNaik
8y
2
5
General-purpose forecasting and the associated community
VipulNaik
8y
0
-2
There’s One Thing Futurists are Never Wrong About
Alex Beyman
2mo
45