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94 posts
Forecasting & Prediction
Technological Forecasting
51 posts
Newsletters
512
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
432
Beware boasting about non-existent forecasting track records
Jotto999
7mo
110
278
Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong
Amandango
2y
91
151
16 types of useful predictions
Julia_Galef
7y
55
143
Assessing Kurzweil predictions about 2019: the results
Stuart_Armstrong
2y
21
125
How to evaluate (50%) predictions
Rafael Harth
2y
50
118
Real-Life Examples of Prediction Systems Interfering with the Real World (Predict-O-Matic Problems)
NunoSempere
2y
29
112
AGI Predictions
Amandango
2y
36
96
S-Curves for Trend Forecasting
Matt Goldenberg
3y
22
90
The Track Record of Futurists Seems ... Fine
HoldenKarnofsky
5mo
23
80
Is Metaculus Slow to Update?
SimonM
9mo
11
79
A time-invariant version of Laplace's rule
Jsevillamol
5mo
5
77
Statistical Prediction Rules Out-Perform Expert Human Judgments
lukeprog
11y
199
64
Forecasting Newsletter: Looking back at 2021
NunoSempere
10mo
6
91
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (21 Aug - 27 Aug 22')
Zoe Williams
3mo
4
76
QAPR 4: Inductive biases
Quintin Pope
2mo
2
42
[AN #166]: Is it crazy to claim we're in the most important century?
Rohin Shah
1y
5
37
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (5 - 11 Sep 22')
Zoe Williams
3mo
0
37
[MLSN #6]: Transparency survey, provable robustness, ML models that predict the future
Dan H
2mo
0
34
Recent updates to gwern.net (2011)
gwern
11y
18
34
Forecasting Newsletter: February 2022
NunoSempere
9mo
0
30
Forecasting Newsletter: April 2020
NunoSempere
2y
3
28
Announcing LessWrong Digest
Evan_Gaensbauer
7y
18
27
Recent updates to gwern.net (2013-2014)
gwern
8y
32
27
Recent updates to gwern.net (2015-2016)
gwern
6y
6
26
June gwern.net newsletter
gwern
4y
0
26
November 2018 gwern.net newsletter
gwern
4y
0
26
Forecasting Newsletter. June 2020.
NunoSempere
2y
0