Go Back
Choose this branch
Choose this branch
meritocratic
regular
democratic
hot
top
alive
64 posts
Distinctions
Gears-Level
Inside/Outside View
Law and Legal systems
Rationalist Taboo
Risk Management
References (Language)
145 posts
Forecasting & Prediction
Newsletters
Technological Forecasting
333
Taboo "Outside View"
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
26
292
“PR” is corrosive; “reputation” is not.
AnnaSalamon
1y
92
216
Almost everyone should be less afraid of lawsuits
alyssavance
1y
16
208
Confidence levels inside and outside an argument
Scott Alexander
12y
193
178
Gears in understanding
Valentine
5y
38
169
Gears-Level Models are Capital Investments
johnswentworth
3y
30
135
Disputing Definitions
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
46
127
Terminal Values and Instrumental Values
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
42
118
Explain/Worship/Ignore?
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
87
117
Scientific Evidence, Legal Evidence, Rational Evidence
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
18
92
Fake Reductionism
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
43
91
In praise of fake frameworks
Valentine
5y
14
91
Fallacies of Compression
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
26
88
Gears vs Behavior
johnswentworth
3y
12
512
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
432
Beware boasting about non-existent forecasting track records
Jotto999
7mo
110
278
Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong
Amandango
2y
91
151
16 types of useful predictions
Julia_Galef
7y
55
143
Assessing Kurzweil predictions about 2019: the results
Stuart_Armstrong
2y
21
125
How to evaluate (50%) predictions
Rafael Harth
2y
50
118
Real-Life Examples of Prediction Systems Interfering with the Real World (Predict-O-Matic Problems)
NunoSempere
2y
29
112
AGI Predictions
Amandango
2y
36
96
S-Curves for Trend Forecasting
Matt Goldenberg
3y
22
91
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (21 Aug - 27 Aug 22')
Zoe Williams
3mo
4
90
The Track Record of Futurists Seems ... Fine
HoldenKarnofsky
5mo
23
80
Is Metaculus Slow to Update?
SimonM
9mo
11
79
A time-invariant version of Laplace's rule
Jsevillamol
5mo
5
77
Statistical Prediction Rules Out-Perform Expert Human Judgments
lukeprog
11y
199