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637 posts
World Modeling
Landmark Forum
209 posts
Forecasting & Prediction
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Distinctions
Gears-Level
Inside/Outside View
Technological Forecasting
Law and Legal systems
Rationalist Taboo
Risk Management
References (Language)
524
It’s Probably Not Lithium
Natália Coelho Mendonça
5mo
181
441
Reflections on six months of fatherhood
jasoncrawford
10mo
21
399
Accounting For College Costs
johnswentworth
8mo
41
333
Your Dog is Even Smarter Than You Think
StyleOfDog
1y
105
315
A Brief Introduction to Container Logistics
Vitor
1y
22
290
Toni Kurz and the Insanity of Climbing Mountains
GeneSmith
5mo
51
261
A non-magical explanation of Jeffrey Epstein
lc
11mo
56
232
What Do GDP Growth Curves Really Mean?
johnswentworth
1y
59
197
Specializing in Problems We Don't Understand
johnswentworth
1y
28
197
A Crash Course in the Neuroscience of Human Motivation
lukeprog
11y
92
182
Paper-Reading for Gears
johnswentworth
3y
6
182
Everyday Lessons from High-Dimensional Optimization
johnswentworth
2y
37
180
Spaghetti Towers
eukaryote
3y
25
163
Look For Principles Which Will Carry Over To The Next Paradigm
johnswentworth
11mo
6
512
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
432
Beware boasting about non-existent forecasting track records
Jotto999
7mo
110
333
Taboo "Outside View"
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
26
292
“PR” is corrosive; “reputation” is not.
AnnaSalamon
1y
92
278
Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong
Amandango
2y
91
216
Almost everyone should be less afraid of lawsuits
alyssavance
1y
16
208
Confidence levels inside and outside an argument
Scott Alexander
12y
193
178
Gears in understanding
Valentine
5y
38
169
Gears-Level Models are Capital Investments
johnswentworth
3y
30
151
16 types of useful predictions
Julia_Galef
7y
55
143
Assessing Kurzweil predictions about 2019: the results
Stuart_Armstrong
2y
21
135
Disputing Definitions
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
46
127
Terminal Values and Instrumental Values
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
42
125
How to evaluate (50%) predictions
Rafael Harth
2y
50