Go Back
Choose this branch
Choose this branch
meritocratic
regular
democratic
hot
top
alive
637 posts
World Modeling
Landmark Forum
209 posts
Forecasting & Prediction
Newsletters
Distinctions
Gears-Level
Inside/Outside View
Technological Forecasting
Law and Legal systems
Rationalist Taboo
Risk Management
References (Language)
322
It’s Probably Not Lithium
Natália Coelho Mendonça
5mo
181
281
Accounting For College Costs
johnswentworth
8mo
41
247
A non-magical explanation of Jeffrey Epstein
lc
11mo
56
233
Reflections on six months of fatherhood
jasoncrawford
10mo
21
195
A Crash Course in the Neuroscience of Human Motivation
lukeprog
11y
92
188
Transportation as a Constraint
johnswentworth
2y
27
175
A Brief Introduction to Container Logistics
Vitor
1y
22
158
What Do GDP Growth Curves Really Mean?
johnswentworth
1y
59
155
Your Dog is Even Smarter Than You Think
StyleOfDog
1y
105
153
Look For Principles Which Will Carry Over To The Next Paradigm
johnswentworth
11mo
6
152
Testing The Natural Abstraction Hypothesis: Project Intro
johnswentworth
1y
34
148
Toni Kurz and the Insanity of Climbing Mountains
GeneSmith
5mo
51
142
Alcohol, health, and the ruthless logic of the Asian flush
dynomight
1y
44
140
Fixing The Good Regulator Theorem
johnswentworth
1y
25
297
Taboo "Outside View"
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
26
268
“PR” is corrosive; “reputation” is not.
AnnaSalamon
1y
92
242
Confidence levels inside and outside an argument
Scott Alexander
12y
193
226
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
208
Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong
Amandango
2y
91
174
Almost everyone should be less afraid of lawsuits
alyssavance
1y
16
173
16 types of useful predictions
Julia_Galef
7y
55
143
Assessing Kurzweil predictions about 2019: the results
Stuart_Armstrong
2y
21
140
Gears in understanding
Valentine
5y
38
122
Real-Life Examples of Prediction Systems Interfering with the Real World (Predict-O-Matic Problems)
NunoSempere
2y
29
119
How to evaluate (50%) predictions
Rafael Harth
2y
50
117
Model Combination and Adjustment
lukeprog
9y
41
117
Gears-Level Models are Capital Investments
johnswentworth
3y
30
108
AGI Predictions
Amandango
2y
36