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637 posts
World Modeling
Landmark Forum
209 posts
Forecasting & Prediction
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Distinctions
Gears-Level
Inside/Outside View
Technological Forecasting
Law and Legal systems
Rationalist Taboo
Risk Management
References (Language)
423
It’s Probably Not Lithium
Natália Coelho Mendonça
5mo
181
340
Accounting For College Costs
johnswentworth
8mo
41
337
Reflections on six months of fatherhood
jasoncrawford
10mo
21
254
A non-magical explanation of Jeffrey Epstein
lc
11mo
56
245
A Brief Introduction to Container Logistics
Vitor
1y
22
244
Your Dog is Even Smarter Than You Think
StyleOfDog
1y
105
219
Toni Kurz and the Insanity of Climbing Mountains
GeneSmith
5mo
51
196
A Crash Course in the Neuroscience of Human Motivation
lukeprog
11y
92
195
What Do GDP Growth Curves Really Mean?
johnswentworth
1y
59
173
Transportation as a Constraint
johnswentworth
2y
27
158
Look For Principles Which Will Carry Over To The Next Paradigm
johnswentworth
11mo
6
152
Everyday Lessons from High-Dimensional Optimization
johnswentworth
2y
37
150
Paper-Reading for Gears
johnswentworth
3y
6
146
Spaghetti Towers
eukaryote
3y
25
369
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
315
Taboo "Outside View"
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
26
280
“PR” is corrosive; “reputation” is not.
AnnaSalamon
1y
92
259
Beware boasting about non-existent forecasting track records
Jotto999
7mo
110
243
Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong
Amandango
2y
91
225
Confidence levels inside and outside an argument
Scott Alexander
12y
193
195
Almost everyone should be less afraid of lawsuits
alyssavance
1y
16
162
16 types of useful predictions
Julia_Galef
7y
55
159
Gears in understanding
Valentine
5y
38
143
Assessing Kurzweil predictions about 2019: the results
Stuart_Armstrong
2y
21
143
Gears-Level Models are Capital Investments
johnswentworth
3y
30
122
How to evaluate (50%) predictions
Rafael Harth
2y
50
120
Real-Life Examples of Prediction Systems Interfering with the Real World (Predict-O-Matic Problems)
NunoSempere
2y
29
110
AGI Predictions
Amandango
2y
36